ajtj99's Market Pulse

[ajtj99]

Burk, some of us who have a skepticism regarding the market post expiration are looking at some key issues. If you are taking the opposite side, you are likely of the opinion that:

1. The rising wedges on the NDX, MID and SPX will break up
rather than the norm, which is down.

2. The 1316 SPX and 600 OEX May 2001 highs will be taken out
on volume and on a closing basis. Those were major pivot
highs in 2001.

3. The NDX, which leads on fresh moves, is lagging now
due to a fundamental shift in its relationship to the
COMP.

4. The narrowing participation in the rally as the indices
make new highs is bullish.

5. The lack of participation from GE, INTC, MSFT, DELL,
and retail stocks is bullish.

6. The yield curve inversion is bullish regardless of the
study that shows nearly 100% odds of a recession in
8-12 months.

7. Record levels of inflows into equity funds not seen since
the 2001 summer highs and end of Feb. 2000 (Schwab,
10 days prior to the 2000 highs) are bullish regardless of
their contrarian effect in the past.

8. Extreme high short positions by the commercials (smart
money) on the big S&P 500 contract are bullish, which
would be a new paradigm in reading the commitment of
traders as I know it.

I am open to a double top at 1760 NDX, a move to 1316 SPX and even 600 OEX. Beyond that, I'm skeptical, and you're apparently confident we will move beyond that. Correct me if I'm wrong.