While there is still one more trading day left to go, perhaps the biggest surprise of the first quarter is the performance of stocks relative to bonds. Heading into 2014, the stock market was often referred to as the TINA market, as in There Is No Alternative. A look at the numbers, though, suggests otherwise.
The charts below compare the performance (on a total return basis) of both the S&P 500 and the BofA/Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index over the last year and so far this quarter. Over the last year, stocks are still trouncing treasuries by a wide margin (+20.33% vs. -3.31%). This quarter has been a different story, though. Following a strong start out of the gate, Treasuries haven't looked back. Heading into the weekend, long-term treasuries are up 7.81% on a total return basis compared to a total return of just 0.53% for the S&P 500.