dvdmogul
I wrote a post sometime ago that corresponds to your view.
here is a part of it:
Today, The high tech industry is in transition as it was in the mid-1980s. Clearly there are significant differences in the two periods, but the similarities of an IPO market that surged and then collapsed, deterioration in the competitive position of previous strong performers, and gradually emerging new leadership shouldn’t be overlooked. The next wave of computing is a disruptive paradigm, which is reshaping the way we work and live. Some new leaders will emerge from this seismic shift in the organisation of economic activity.
Because the same vendors don’t lead in consecutive waves, it’s a good time to identify potential new leaders. Within a wave, The Law of Increasing Returns favor the strong getting stronger, which is why investors did well in the 1990s to buy Intel, Microsoft and Cisco. When the wave breaks, it’s time to ride the next swell.
In addition, companies tend to hit a revenue stall at $30 billion, which suggests that some of tech’s biggest and best names face growth problems. I think analysts’ estimated long-term growth rates are too high for the largest vendors. It’s time to go down revenue to look for companies that can become technology giants down the road
When we examine the IT industry evolution, each successive wave has ten times the number of users and stock market value but different leaders. The PC-wave resulted in a 10-fold wealth creation, and I have little doubt that the next wave will, too. But not immediately. When waves overlap, technology is in transition. The old guard declines while new leaders emerge. This creative destruction is a good thing, but can suppress tech indices for a while. The market cap lost in last wave’s leaders can more than offset the gains in the emerging companies until the new wave matures.
Today represents a similar period of wave overlap. The IT boom and bust of 1999-2001 was similar to the PC IPO boom of 1982-83. After the PC IPO window closed, investors prematurely said the PC game was over. In fact, Microsoft didn’t go public until 1986. Similarly, the next tech wave has only just begun.
I refute the common perception there are no killer apps at this time. The transformation of tradtional businesses into e-businesses and the transformation of the carrier voice-centric network (based on circuit switches) into a data-centric network based on IP are inevitable are just two key examples.
Alexander
AI
Market Data 
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