Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

You are right, but will that be a long lasting event? We were going into a recession prior to 9/11, air travel got decimated after 9/11, yet we ended up with a mild two quarters recession and since, while just muddling, we have had continuous growth. I think that the economic landscape is more impacted by macro trends here (excess capacity for one, stretched consumer another (yet consumer are not excessively stretched, just at the upper range of the "band"), and the fact that the growth was maintained mainly by housing and the automotive sectors (due to the low rates) and if these weakens, we may have another weakening (probably not before late next year since the government will remove all stops to have a "feel good" economy going into the election). SARS, while possibly having an impact short term, and even travel restrictions, will not, IMTO, change that major macro picture by much. Of course, if what Welch said is right, and this is not just a one month aberration (and is recaptured later), then this assessment may be incorrect.

Zeev