Foreign Correspondence

[otraque]

i assess the U.S. situation in military terms as being not capable of making any move on Iran, regardless of how this post al Ashariyah bombing plays out; but Iran, if they aren't as dumb as Bush, must not invade Iraq; that would be giving a huge gift to the U.S. if they, Iran, moved pre-emptively and moved troops into Iran.

Iran is so much more formidable than Iraq, that if our CIC ordered troops to invade Iran, they would likely suffer a humiliating defeat.

A few stats Iraq 25million people(and but dropping is that number) and square miles of 168ksq.miles(counting Kurdistan, which we could subtract if i had the area for it, but the book i am looking at doesn't have that data:)

Iran about 75million and sq.mile area of 636k sq.miles with that population being 95% Shi'ite.

We are losing in Iraq, what would happen if we invaded Iran??
I say disaster.

Religious Muslims may, in the end, come up with the solution of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon--the Sunni and Shi'ites stopped fighting each other in a common cause , force Israel out of Lebanon.
If push comes to shove, my guess is Iraqi Shi'ites would support Iran if U.S. dared to invade Iran.

But if Iran were to invade Iraq first, it would be a major mistake by Iran; they must let the americans come to them.



If Ahmadinedad is thinking right nothing he would like more than provoke the U.S. to invade Iran, just by continuing to defy the West.

He could initiate an invasion from U.S. simply by playing the oil card.

Bottomline, i see Bush and company have their troops in a bad situation.

Hitler could well have won WWII if he had not invaded Russia.
Germany, imo, lost WWII in the battle of Stalingrad.