Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[dpsimswm]

Cup with Handle Chart Pattern

"Like most technical patterns, the cup with handle pattern is really little more than a variation of another technical pattern. In this case that pattern is the double top. The pattern begins after a well-liked stock rallies to a new high following a positive fundamental development. As the stock surges investors feel increasingly comfortable paying higher prices but there comes a point when the "story" of the stock fails to convert new believers. Slowly, the stock begins to drift lower as those seeking to lock-in profits outnumber those intrigued by the story. Although most of the fundamental news is still positive, many investors begin to question if the stock really is worth the prevailing market price and over time a substantial decline begins.

This process creates an important technical peak (top#1). As the stock nears a twenty percent decline from the recent highs (this decline could reach fifty percent in bear markets) buyers begin to reassert themselves and the stock stabilizes and a reaction low occurs. From this point forward, the bias begins to tilt gradually higher. During this phase the stock may be the subject of positive Wall Street analyst comments, a new product announcement or legal victory. As the rally gains steam sentiment improves dramatically and new buyers begin to talk about certain new highs but those that purchased the stock at or near top#1 get ready to sell. These investors may have been waiting as long at 12 weeks for an opportunity to sell their positions without incurring a loss and they are not dissuaded by all of the new found bullish talk. Just short of the old highs at top#1 aggressive selling begins on no specific news but in reality some investors that bought near top#1 have already begun to sell. The stock begins to work significantly lower on increased volume creating a second, well defined top (top#2)."

http://www.smallcapreview.com/CupWithHandle.htm