Josh, I agree that it is good that they are signing contracts. I also agree that it is good that that a 1 acre nursery can generate sufficient seedlings for 100 acres. However, the actual behavior of each of the existing contracts is very informative as to what to expect. Tibbar plans to plant a maximum of 1,500 acres of GKG for the St. Croix digestion plant project, not tens of thousands of acres. Agricorp created a 5 acre nursery many months ago in Nicaraguaand is only planning on planting 29 acres in the next stage, not 5,000 acres. In fact they have stated that the maximum land they have available is 4,000 acres to grow GKG for both the power plant and for animal feed and the schedule for planting that is tied to the actual construction of the power plant, not the rate at which GKG grows. Maricopa said that they are planning 3 phases of 4,500 acres each, not a 450,000 acre second phase followed by a 45 million acre 3rd phase. VSPC announced in early January that the nursery will be planted in February or March and just announced that they are only planting 100 acres after that will be ready for harvesting by November.
My point is that despite the theoretical exponential growth possible, what we are seeing really play out is much slower and measured growth with the actual acreage planted dictated by actual project needs and logistics. I believe the other limitation is the speed at which they sign contracts. That is why I am disappointed that we have not heard of any new contracts in many months with the exception of Pakistan which had been in the works for 2 years (according to the January announcement).
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