Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

My $GILD estimates:

Spent more time on alternatives:

Rough numbers based on possible sale numbers of Sovaldi:

$8B - $6.00/sh+
$10B - $7.00/sh+
$12B - $8.00/sh+
$15B - $9.50/sh+
$20B - $12.00/sh+

Since I am now looking for $10-12B (which has been moving up every week), I am still looking for $7-8.00 earnings. At a p/e of 20, it would be a price of 140-160.

My worst case is $8B and $6.00/sh with a 12 p/e (no growth, but not a big decline), so a price of $72.

Obviously, there is a better case too, but that seems "too-good-to-be-true." Of course, my base case would have seemed the same 6 weeks ago,