Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

From Wells this week:

(1) Base case - secondary warehousing - growth in new patient starts slows Q2-Q3 then picks up again Q4 - $10.80B, up
from $7.32B
(2) Rapidly decaying Sovaldi new patient starts throughout remainder of year (bear case) - $8.18B, up from $5.44B
(3) Sovaldi new patient starts level off for rest of year - $15.54B, up from $10.26B
(4) Week over week NRx changes match those seen with Incivek+Victrelis at same point in launch - $14.34B, up from
$9.39B

Base case is now $10.8B.

Level NRx is $15.5B!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wow!!!!!!!!!!!

Even higher than my top number.

**BOTTOM LINE: We believe GILD shares have stalled of late in part due to concerns regarding a potential slowdown in
uptake this year as initial ''warehoused'' patients go through treatment and other untreated patients await the all-oral
regimen. While we fully expect this will happen at some point, with each week of growth we believe the chance for 2014
sales to exceed even high expectations increases, and the large long-term opportunity within this market - especially
once GILD has a more optimal all-oral regimen - becomes clearer and clearer.

Couldn't agree more.