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Re: checkmate28 post# 387

Monday, 02/20/2006 11:21:58 AM

Monday, February 20, 2006 11:21:58 AM

Post# of 1081
I take the long view here. These guys are long term operators with a stable successful philosophy. Cohan has been doing this for a long time. He keeps costs low and hits a high percentage of his wells. He has concentrated on Natural gas because I think he follows the industry and felt that was where the best bang was. There is also probably some simplicity in dealing with only ngas in terms of negotiating sale prices,etc. Who says he can't keep doing it. He will have a hard time keeping up with the percentage increases but there is no doubt in my mind that he can steadily increase the gross production volumes.

Why attach such a negative conspiracy theory to selling a few shares of stock. I still think they were option shares that were going to expire. Even if they weren't, why deny him the right to sell some shares. 120,000 shares spread over 3 months is not significant. Please provide the trading stats that prove they are going to affect the trading prices.

I believe if you look at Cohan's track record, you will see several things:
1. He doesn't change his operating policies. He is confident in his skills and is doing his normal thing.
2. He likely qualifies in most ways for a senior exchange but has not done so. WHY? I think he has done an analysis and feels the ongoing costs and requirements outweigh the benefits.
3. The stock price has gone from $1 when I found Aspen in 2004 to over $10 at the peak and $5 now. Is that a problem? Do you think he is desparately searching for a solution to this problem??
4. This is a low overhead shop. Two employees....Everything is outsourced. What happens to overhead and profits if you have to comply with Sarbannes Oxley fully as well as the appropriate listing exchange. I predict operating costs go up $500 to 750K per year. For this size company, I am not sure it's worth it.
5. Aspen is fully capable of funding exploration and development drilling internally. One of the biggest advantages to a senior listing is access to capital. If you don't need capital, your motivation to move up decreases. Plus do you think that Aspen would have ANY trouble raising capital with their track record?
6. Investors confuse business decisions with decisions that improve THEIR chances of making money in the stock and moving on. Business decisions are made so that the corporation can make more money. Investors like those as long as they help improve the stock price. Spending 500 to $750K and reducing profits on the chance that the stock price would move up when Aspen is already valued at a premium isn't necessarily a great BUSINESS decision.
7. I don't think Cohan is necessarily looking for an exit. Bailey is an older gentleman that brought in Cohan to run his business. Why wouldn't Cohan want to do exactly what Bailey did. Run his little company his way and eventually bring in a younger man to run the daily operations.

Cohan has proven to be a GREAT operator and businessman. He makes great drilling decisions. He holds costs to a minimum. He increases production, revs and cashflow consistently. Any nitpicking about his business decisions is faulty in my view. Bobwins




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