Most of what you pointed out may be more why we're where we're at instead of a prediction of the future. For one, if Intel wants a price war as you indicate is inevitable (? as you surmise?), they would be far better managed than AMD as that's been proven in the 2000 recession. Problably no other company could have done so well. A price war wouldn't increase MS for AMD, it would take back anything given up at great devastation to AMD. AMD needs lots of money right now to fund fabs and pay off debt. If Intel wanted to "get rid" of AMD, this would be the way and the time to do it. AMD is very vulnerable. But, I don't think Intel wants a price war, and they don't want AMD to go away. Rather, they would prefer AMD have a sizable MS of about 15%, managed to 10% if possible, not far from where they are now.
The market is growing and everyone seems to forget that. There's plenty of room for both companies and enough for AMD to keep it's fab 36 in operation. Many here look at it as AMD built fab 36 to provide AMD with 30-50% of the market. AMD themselves have stated the intention to shut down fab 30. Without fab 36, AMD would be out of the market with only a 90nm process in about 1 year.
The lawsuit is an unknown at this time. I doubt that Intel has it's kimona open. More likely than not, they will, in some way win the suit, providing it even comes to fuition. Even if AMD wins in some way, Intel will simply save marketing dollars they are now paying to OEMs and advertise on their own. With 45nm coming on board, Intel will have a lot of margin. Even at $1.20 earnings, Intel has price support at about 25, 5 points above where they are today.
OTOH, Intel has a brand new NGA about to hit the market. And, they have shown the ability to win server market share with the present product via Dell. I'm sure that will improve in the next few quarters. Desktop activity is down as a result of the transition to notebooks. I'm just wondering where AMD will be when the editors realize that AMD no longer has the performance edge? Just how far will this stock fall? OEMs are very fickle as they need to be. Just a meets from Intel will be cart tipper. And there's that menacing 20% advantage stated by Mooley.
The jury is not out on Otellini, he's already put his brand on Intel. We don't know the impact of the platform strategy, but I don't think it will be negative as it's been a long time coming with several attempts, perhaps this is it. At least AMD thinks so...
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