Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: GILD’s HIV franchise

Huh? GILD's "colossal" HIV franchise is doing just fine right now…

Not sure why you put quotation marks around the word colossal insofar as GILD’s HIV franchise is selling at an annualized rate of $10B. However, in 2017 Viread will be off-patent in major jurisdictions and the longer-running patents covering Emtriva are weak.

Stribild and Complera are selling very well right now while there is no generic competition for any modern HIV regimen, but if TAF fails to show a clear clinical benefit vs Viread, third-party payers (including EU governments and the US’s Ryan White program) will opt for generic Atripla—or generic versions of the constituent drugs in Atripla—as the preferred cocktail for new patients.

So, for GILD investors there is indeed a lot riding on the ability of TAF to show a medically meaningful advantage relative to Viread.