No, we haven't really established the latter. Fellner will be dumping 30 billion shares. That is not "probable". It is "certain". And it will likely happen quickly.
The shares are being offered at $0.0001. Nobody buying will want to be the last one out the door. My guess, as I explained in my article, is that the sales have already been arranged, and they are, in my view, not being made to people buying for "investment".