The Black Box

[wahz]

Yes, I know we should turn here, but I just question my positioning against the trend. i should have waited.

I wrote this in comments about Jesse Livermore on Z's thread, and what should be learned from him:


"I have simplified his lesson to one thing after 25+ years: I wake up in the am and ask myself, is the intermediate trend up or down or sideways? Then I ask myself am I positioned in that direction or not. If not, WHAT THE HELL AM I UP TO; AM I SICK LIKE LIVERMORE, OR WHAT??

The first step is to have confidence that I know what the intermediate trend is, over 90% of the time. Then, I know in my heart if I am not with it, then I am positioned as if I am gambler, an addict, a rank amateur."

So, Gottfried, when I do this, it makes me a bit ill. The trend was clearly still up on an intermediate basis.

I have shared a lot of my work with a friend who knows more than I, frankly. Once, when he was positioned long when "my work"..said the intermediate trend was down, I asked him why, what in hell was he thinking?(we scream a lot). He said:

"I am just trying to take it to the next level..you know, the level where you go broke even though you know better."

Thats how I am positioned now.