Can you predict by linear regression and the disease figures since November 29 2002, when it first started in Guandong Province in China what the rate of spread is likely to be? It is a very steep curve. It has a geometric growth pattern. The politicians who are declaring it is contained do not know mathematics, or are choosing to ignore it for other reasons. Math and statistics, unfortunately, are not in the syllabus of most law courses.
Yes, we get a total figure of 10 to 13 percent death rate. It is not yet known what the true death rate is. This is because it is too young in Canada, only 48 days old. What is not known is what the true average time to die from onset versus the time to recover and how much that may vary. If we count that people who die take longer to die than some take to reach a stable recovering state, or that some may take a shorter time to die than it takes to discharge others, that some will have mild forms, some not be reported, others will not get very sick and will be sent home early and others have relapsed when seeming to recover, and that there are different forms of the disease, it presents a very confusing picture.
In this case, we can only take all suspected cases, and take the clearly out-of-the-woods rate declared per day versus the dead per day, in a stable state area, such as China, and plot the growth rate of each figure. When it appears that the ratio of one to the other is not changing much, then the steady state of deaths to recoveries can be said to be reached with little error.
We already know that with other very mortal RNA replicating diseases with high survivability, this is about ten to one. It is likely with corona virus for the population in total this may be its state.
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