Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

GILD—If I can pick up a low-risk 20% I'll take it.

I would suggest that there is no such low-hanging fruit to be harvested. The most consequential unknown in GILD’s future is not Sovaldi (or Sovaldi + Ledispavir), but rather is TAF—the lifecycle management replacement for Viread that will determine the status of GILD’s colossal HIV franchise 5-10 years out. Investors who are long GILD at the current valuation are thus making a bullish bet on the prospects of TAF, whether they realize it or not.