Intel Corp (INTC)

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I asked how much market penetration should Intel have at this point.

Should have...? That's nice for a philosophical discussion. Certainly, after the roadmap they flashed up in 2008, I would have expected them to be leaders in the phone market by now. But all I'm arguing is that there are good reasons why they missed, and it wasn't due to incompetence. I think they bet on a good launch partner, and a strategic OS choice, but it failed. And I don't think any data in 2007-08 would have helped them to realize that they should have bet on an Android ecosystem, or that leaders in the phone industry in 2007-08 (like Nokia, Blackberry, etc.) wouldn't even be relevant today.

If I wanted to accept the argument that Intel management were incompetent, I'd have to accept that a proper analysis would have shown that Apple would become the #1 phone vendor, that companies in China would be leading the volume markets with sub-$10 SOCs, and that Google would have more than 70% of share in the market. You tell me who expected this in 2007, and then I will grant you that Intel should have known better.

Bottom line is that I don't think Intel has any chance of making a significant impact in mobile until maaaybe the 2nd half of this year. And until that happens, Intel will have to rely on PC and servers to carry them through. Which means INTC stock price will go nowhere (neither up nor down) for the foreseeable future.

To be fair, what do you consider to be the foreseeable future in the stock market? Would you measure in hours or minutes?

To your point, I also think Intel is about a year off from having competitive high end mobile devices on the market. Merifield and Bay Trail will target mid range and low end devices, and who knows when Moorfield and 7260 will really ship, given how long it takes to get devices on the shelf? Maybe we'll see something by Christmas, but I'm not holding my breath.

That said, I have yet to see any raw incompetence in the management at this point, which means I'm willing to wait until the technology pipeline runs its course.