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Re: writonwater post# 4457

Sunday, 02/12/2006 4:56:26 PM

Sunday, February 12, 2006 4:56:26 PM

Post# of 47225
All of that ultimately influences the long run ability to pay or not pay dividends - or as I already explained I thought quite clearly - the future flow of cash flows.

Cash is king, everything else is bullshit. Every factor you can dream of ultimately will increase or decrease this.

The 90s didn't change this basic element - it only proved it - as they came crashing back down to Earth. The greater fool theory doesn't change Ben Graham's 1934 book which is just as much a bible for most of the financial markets today as it was in 1934.

If you still don't undertstand, try to narrow it down to more simpler examples. I have a hotdog stand to sell you. Do you want to buy by hotdog stand business for $30,000? In order to figure out if that price is a good or bad one, you need to guessimate how many positive or negative cashflows it will pay out in 2006, 2007, .... 2100. Guessimate the odds of alternate cashflows due to alternate possibilities, inflation, rising costs (all part of it), risk of the stand manager dying and cost of replacing....and bam, you'll get your guessimated value today....which is duplicate to a stock price in the long run.

And it's exactly why MCI ran so big for your father and SIRI will cause financial pain to anybody buying now and holding out for 2010+

Raw

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