Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[noretreat]

Now that the 2b trial is a given...Here is the big question in my view:

How likely is it that one or both of the single-dose arms will show parity to 7 days of daptomycin?

I have recently stated that I think the odds lean slightly toward CTIX...about 60/40. But this is little better than a coin flip and by the time results are due the expectations on both sides will make this a "near binary" event. If single-dose Brilacidin does equal 7 days of daptomycin/Cubicin, then it's "let the good times roll"...to a minimum price of $5. If it does not deliver, then how much is the company worth? My guess is it would still be over a buck. The net, then, based on expected value, would be around $3.40, or roughly the same as Mr. Cox' prediction. (.6 chance of $5, plus .4 chance of $1)

I would like to hear from others on this...

(The guys I would really like to hear from on this are Dr's Menon and Jorgensen, and maybe Cubist's Chief science officer!)