Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

I think the 8 core Avoton is 2-4x faster than Opteron X1250 already...

David - no doubt.

But we should also acknowledge the matter of x86 incumbency. There's no reason to invest in ARM based software ports, outside of vendors looking to diversify beyond Intel. At this point, the motivation isn't performance or power, and it isn't cost, since Intel has a competitive server SOC that meets all of these requirements. It might be strategic reasons, including the potential to differentiate and win share. But for that, there needs to be a game-changer that so far I haven't seen from ARM's PowerPoint promises.

They also have a challenge with ISV's, since they will make money either way, and will only port to ARM when they becomes an established architecture in servers. But for ARM to get established, they have to struggle through the catch-22 to deliver a solution to customers that can compete with the x86 software incumbency.

At some point, that's going to take an enormous software NRE investment, and I'm not sure who outside of Apple or Samsung can dedicate the necessary funding. Well, Google or Facebook could do so themselves, assuming they have the motivation to enable ARM servers, but again I haven't seen a good reason. And AMD certainly cannot afford it on their own, and I see them hoping to ride on the coat tails of someone else.

So at the end of the day, there has to be a disruption in order to get over the hump, and I have seen no evidence of this so far.