The IND is supposed to be filed in January, according to the announcement from Novartis. I believe Novartis will get it done, but if they miss, it won't be by much. IND's are not actually approved by the FDA, they become effective 30 days after they're filed if the FDA doesn't question the IND or ask for additional information.
I believe an SEC filing supports the fact that GNVC will be paid when the IND becomes effective, and again when the first patient is dosed.
I also think the payments per milestone may be far greater than $5 million in that over $200 million in milestones exist, but I have no proof as like all other similar SEC documents I've seen, all the critical data is redacted.
Gary