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Re: bladerunner1717 post# 171774

Tuesday, 01/21/2014 2:13:18 PM

Tuesday, January 21, 2014 2:13:18 PM

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[OT/China]—I agree with this excerpt from the BNY Mellon macroeconomic outlook you posted in December:

The outlook for the Chinese economy is one of the crucial uncertainties for 2014. We expect a growth rate near 7.5% in 2014. We believe that the deceleration in Chinese economic growth is not cyclical but rather is structural. A slowdown in the growth in its blue-collar labor force has contributed to wage inflation, which has eroded its competitiveness, especially for less complex products. We believe that China is beginning a transition from a double-digit trend growth rate in the past to a sustainable growth rate near 6% in future years due to eroding demographics and the need for greater discipline in its investment in infrastructure, property, plant and equipment.

We disagree with those who anticipate a financial meltdown in China, since we believe that the government has the financial resources to amortize financial losses over a period of years.

Emphasis added.

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