My guess is that this isn't likely to go anywhere until the end of March (because of Form 15).
Then again, I think IDLM could easily move to 20c if management shows the least flicker of competence, transparency, and maturity. And 5c to 20c is a very good return. It is the same return as 20c to 80c, but 5c to 20c is IMHO far more likely.
Here's my thinking. IDLM is currently at 5c (+/-). What is the probability it goes to 0? Well, I don't see how it goes to 0, because there's some undeniable value here even if management can't figure out how to run the company. So, let's put 2c as the absolute floor, and let the probability that it goes to 2c be P. We know that if the company becomes more shareholder friendly and if management gets off their butts to get revenues growing that the company is easily going well past 20c.
So, using 20c as the best case outcome the equation is 5c = P*2c + (1-P)*20c. Solving this gives P = 5/6. In other words, the market right now must be saying there's only a 1/6 chance that IDLM management gets past this whole SEC filing debacle to have its Form 15 take effect, opening up communications and showing us how they are going to get IDLM back on track. If the potential upside is larger than 20c, as I believe it is, then the market must be assigning an even lower probability to IDLM management getting its act in gear.
I think those probabilities are too low. And thus I believe that IDLM, warts and all, represents an uncommonly good risk at 5c. Not a bet-the-farm sort of risk, and not a risk for impatient money. But a reasonable risk.
Clearly the safer policy is to wait and see if they manage to straighten things out. If it becomes clear they will, then I think the price very rapidly moves above 20c. There will still be some upside from that point and might be better for risk averse investors. But the odds of IDLM moving from 20c to 80c are much lower IMHO than the odds of IDLM moving from 5c to 20c.
Do I wish I had waited on IDLM until now? Of course. Am I angry at Frasier and Haddock for botching things so thoroughly? Yes, indeed. Have I been consistently wrong about how massively inept these clowns are? Yes, that's also true. But at 5c I think there is substantial upside even with these clowns at the helm.
And I think enough people know this that there aren't going to be a whole lot of shares available at these low prices, which in turn explains the lack of volume. So the wait goes on.
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