The older I get the more I understand how snake oil salesmen made their fortunes in the past century. They offered a quick fix to for any and all ailments. As a result, people handed over their money hand over fist to get that fix. I think many involved in CTIX are looking for a similar quick fix and are fundamentally not equiped to be "investors".
Studies show that most retail "traders" loose money and end up loosing big over time. There certainly are exceptions and some on this board may be those exceptions. However, in the end the big investors will win, the markets are rigged. Case in point, I don't believe there is anyone on this board who individually can move the CTIX price in their favor. A fund could easily do so. Hence I don't worry myself about day to day price action as I'm not in this for a 25% move. As long as the science and drugs are progressing, I'm thrilled.
True enterprise value takes significant time to develop and with few exceptions, outsized gains are made by those investing in early stage private offerings---think friends and family money through, A, B, C and mezzanine financing for companies who eventually go public. The problem is that most investors never have a chance to make those types of investments. One, they aren't accredited investors and two, they don't have access to the deal flow. For example, I had an opportunity to get into Facebook when it was at roughly at 50M in valuation. I passed, as I didn't see how they would monetize the user base (and Zuckerberg is a real headcase). However, there were ten other deals that looked as good as Facebook that I also passed on that ended up cratering. So the risk vs return is real.
My point in all of this is that CTIX is unusual due to the fact that they are public. This makes owning their stock equivalent to early stage private placements. The risk is extreme but so is the opportunity for 10x or more return. But this ISN'T something that happens in a few days or months for that matter. It will take longer than anyone here realizes.
In a previous post I mentioned that many on this board were setting outsized expectations for this conference and that seems to have proved out.
I'm happy by the progress of the company and the update they provided yesterday. This conference confirmed that 2014 has the potential to be a good year but I'm still convinced that 2015 will be "THE" year. I think we bounce around these levels and start moving up in Q2-EOY and should be in the 5-10ish range but the real action will be next year.
I have a large enough position that if any one of the drugs hit I'll have a seven figure return and if Kevetrin hits I could see a nine figure return. I'm certainly willing to wait a few years for those type of opportunities. Per standard business development process we're only five years into a 7 to 10 year cycle.
Patience is something that the passage of time most commonly teaches us.
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