update futures strategy from Saxobank-fwiw
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Published: Feb. 07 2006, 15:25 GMT
Gold in massive correction due to falling oil prices
oil came for second day due to Iran´s stand off from cutting production.
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Energies
Brent: Iran's nuclear activities are currently the only fundamental factor supporting oil prices above $60. We are expecting bearish inventory numbers tomorrow, and any ease in the political tension could send crude to the $55/$58 level. On a longer term perspective a break of the $55 support would be damaging and LCOH6 could trade around $47/$48. Brent opened $63.21, traded $62.78 low. Expected inventory numbers: Crude 1000K exp; Gasoline 2500K exp; Distillate 450K; Refinery 0.03% exp. march contracts currently trading at $62,29/bbl
Trading Strategy: short Brent from 63,18 stop 63,40 Target 62,15 2nd 61,25
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Metals
Gold fell for the first time in three weeks as prices on oil started to decline. Speculation on accelerated inflation came off and hedgers sold off Gold positions.From a technical point of view the wedge formation was broken and support at $573/oz taken out. the correction in Gold has been anticipated for some time where the increase since August close to $110/oz.
April contracts on OCMEX currently trading at 559,80 or $14,80 down.