Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HCV GT1 stats from ABBV’s JPM webcast:

• 4M infected patients in ‘G7’ developed countries*; 2M of them are currently diagnosed.

• 1M of the 2M diagnosed patients in G7 countries are treatment-naïve and 1M are treatment-experienced.

These figures imply a long runway for treatment of GT1 patients rather than an Incivek-like boom and bust. I.e. the number of patients treated per year will be constrained by supply (i.e. throughput) rather than demand, which is consistent with the assumptions in my ENTA valuation model in #msg-94993406.

*US, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Canada.