AI
Tuesday, January 14, 2014 3:32:38 PM
I hate to be a party pooper here, but I think this may not be the ticket to retirement we thought it was going to be…
Let me preface this by disclosing that I bought 200k shares estimating that it would be up to $1 by next January, at which time I could sell the shares and pay off my mortgage, making my life that much less dependent on 50 hour work weeks. So please don’t accuse me of being a “basher”. I’m just as disappointed as everyone else.
Another disclosure, I’m not all that experienced in analyzing this stuff, so by all means, let me know if I’m looking at this incorrectly here. And certainly keep in mind that this is just my opinion. Everyone is entitled to their own and should do their own analysis. I just wanted to get some feedback on what I am thinking.
I had a look at the number of shares becoming unrestricted over the next nine months. As far as I can see (and correct me if I’m wrong) there were 707,504,136 shares outstanding at the close of the fiscal year on 9/30/2012 and since that time all shares issued have been restricted, meaning they haven’t entered the pool of shares being traded yet…meaning the pool of shares out there that we are all trading from is the 707.5 Million.
The restricted shares begin to unlock in March and continue through September. During that time 2,535,229,051 (2.5 Billion) shares become unrestricted, per my calculation using the table provided in yesterday’s filing. That is a 358% increase in the number of shares outstanding. While I agree with the argument that as production ramps up there will be more investors to absorb some extra shares, I’m having trouble believing that there will be so much as to absorb a 358% increase of 2.5 Billion shares.
I’m not able to tie back to the 3,405,969,548 shares shown on the Statement of Stockholders’ Equity. When I add the shares listed in the table showing the number of shares distributed to the 9/30/12 balance I’m only coming up with 3,242,733,187. That’s a difference of 163,236,361, or 5% of the total, that I can’t account for, so I left them out of the calculation showing the 358% increase.
I’m not sure if it will show, but I’ll try including a screen shot of the table I put together.
Again, all of this is just my opinion derived from the information I have available to me. Please look into it yourself and let me know what conclusion you come to…
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Let me preface this by disclosing that I bought 200k shares estimating that it would be up to $1 by next January, at which time I could sell the shares and pay off my mortgage, making my life that much less dependent on 50 hour work weeks. So please don’t accuse me of being a “basher”. I’m just as disappointed as everyone else.
Another disclosure, I’m not all that experienced in analyzing this stuff, so by all means, let me know if I’m looking at this incorrectly here. And certainly keep in mind that this is just my opinion. Everyone is entitled to their own and should do their own analysis. I just wanted to get some feedback on what I am thinking.
I had a look at the number of shares becoming unrestricted over the next nine months. As far as I can see (and correct me if I’m wrong) there were 707,504,136 shares outstanding at the close of the fiscal year on 9/30/2012 and since that time all shares issued have been restricted, meaning they haven’t entered the pool of shares being traded yet…meaning the pool of shares out there that we are all trading from is the 707.5 Million.
The restricted shares begin to unlock in March and continue through September. During that time 2,535,229,051 (2.5 Billion) shares become unrestricted, per my calculation using the table provided in yesterday’s filing. That is a 358% increase in the number of shares outstanding. While I agree with the argument that as production ramps up there will be more investors to absorb some extra shares, I’m having trouble believing that there will be so much as to absorb a 358% increase of 2.5 Billion shares.
I’m not able to tie back to the 3,405,969,548 shares shown on the Statement of Stockholders’ Equity. When I add the shares listed in the table showing the number of shares distributed to the 9/30/12 balance I’m only coming up with 3,242,733,187. That’s a difference of 163,236,361, or 5% of the total, that I can’t account for, so I left them out of the calculation showing the 358% increase.
I’m not sure if it will show, but I’ll try including a screen shot of the table I put together.
Again, all of this is just my opinion derived from the information I have available to me. Please look into it yourself and let me know what conclusion you come to…
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