Intel Corp (INTC)

[chipguy]

Let me give you an idea of what it's like trying to move into a new
product category in the chip business.

First of all you look around and see what ODMs are buying today.
You try to talk to them about what improvements they would like
in future products but they won't give you the time of day because
you have no credibility - you don't even have a piece of silicon to
show them. Silicon talks and BS walks as far as they're concerned.

So you look at things today and roll your own device with some
improvements that seem like great ideas to you. You get reasonably
working silicon years later but incumbents bring out new products
that go in unexpected direction. But at least having a working chip
finally gets you in the door with ODMs and they will kick the tires
on it. Most will say no thanks without a word but one or two of the
more sympathetic ones will point out its major flaws and this will
lead to insights to the market your company never even considered.
This is truly Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns territory.

So you toss version one in the garbage and start again with a bit
more insight to this market. You get working silicon on version
two years later and again the incumbents leap frog you. If you
did a good job learning what your ODM said then you will have
silicon that isn't totally a loser and you may even get a design
win for a niche product at a minor player. But this gets you a lot
further in with that ODM and they actually start talking about
new ideas on their side and this gives you your first insight on
where things are heading instead of playing catch-up all the time.

Now you roll up your sleeves and start working on version three.
You get working silicon years later and this gets in the door at
several ODMs and if the stars align you may score the socket in
a major runner. So after a decade from starting you actually start
getting non-negligible share but the market leaders still have a
few tricks that keep them first choice. You get more insights from
multiple ODMs and find they have different visions for the future.
You try your luck at deciding who is right and you place your bets
for version four. If you win here you could become a leader, if not
better luck next time.