"I see no reason why someone would want a Windows tablet *in addition to* a Windows PC."
[Really? There are lots of reasons but the biggest one is total compatibility across devices. Why wouldn't everyone want this? I want to be able to run everything on my tablet that I run on my desktop. I also want Android on it. Then I have the best of all possible worlds. And then I'm going to want full-blown Windows on my smartphone as well. I want consistent applications across every single device.]
"Once Intel has the right products, then the company can execute such an "Order 66" strategy. Until then, we're sitting ducks."
[Not really. The smartphone wars are going to continue for a very long time. Because they turn over so quickly, there is not a particular problem with missing any given cycle. And there are some very important fundamental dynamics in play.
TSMC's dividends have exceed their free cash flow for all of the last 4 years. They and the rest of the ARM foundries are currently being crushed by their CapEx needs. The ARM foundries are having to spend a huge percentage of their revenues on CapEx in the attempt to get to FinFET. Intel is in control of this dynamic. So, while Intel is moving steadily ahead, the ARM foundries are having huge trouble catching up and are bankrupting themselves at the same time. As I've said many times, Qualcomm, Nvidia and AMD have a fabrication problem. They don't have reliable state-of-the-art fabrication. This is true for Apple as well.
It's quite possible the CapEx requirements will drop TSMC out of the state-of-the-art fab category into second tier status leaving only Intel and Samsung. This would give Intel a huge competitive advantage in smartphones and mobility.
The ARM foundries also have economic problems and margins problems at 20nm and will have the same problem with FinFET because theirs is a half-step. Intel does not have either of these problems. And Intel will have leadership in density.
Because of these very fundamental manufacturing, technology, and economic issues, ARM fabrication's future is problematic at best. And this is not to mention capacity problems. We will see a train wreck with 20nm when all the top players start to scrap for scarce production. These problems will affect all areas, including smartphones.
Most of Intel's smartphone problems will be solved in 6-12 months. Most of ARM's fabrication problems won't ever be solved and they are getting worse each day. To solve them they need time, money and technology. They don't have enough of any of them.
It's pretty easy to see how this ends.]
AI
