Intel Corp (INTC)

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wbmw, love your honesty. You have never been one to disappoint when it comes to providing a healthy dose of skepticism and I think your points here are legitimate.

1. Apple (Intel has no chance)

Unless Intel starts building A-series chips! But, I fundamentally agree, Intel will never sell their own IA processors into this space. I should have qualified with "non-Apple tablet market".

Samsung (the latest Galaxy Tab design won by Intel is now back using Exynos - so what does that tell you?)

Bay Trail was late, not fast enough, and generally just inferior to Snapdragon 800?

Amazon (Qualcomm has this ecosystem locked up for quite some time, IMO)

If Intel continues to be late with sub-par products, sure. If Intel starts executing well (2015 and beyond - 2014 is a bust, IMO), then I could see Intel winning this socket.

Nexus (If Intel has a design here, I'll believe it when I see it)

If Intel has a leadership product, then I could see this happening. No reason why not, actually, GIVEN that Intel's products don't under-perform like Bay Trail.

China (chips here sold at near-0% margin)

MediaTek gets ~37% GM for its chips. Intel, with its fabs, could probably win this business with a targeted design at 40-45% GM pretty soundly. Just needs the right product.

The problem with Intel isn't that it can't win most of these sockets, but it's that its products just blow. And I use this VERY harsh term because in this highly cutthroat market, either you're on-time with a great product, or you have a POS (since it doesn't make us, the guys who own the stock, money). Bay Trail is a POS, just as Tegra 4 was - losers for their respective companies on a profit basis.

Unfortunately for Intel, NVIDIA got its act together with Logan and Qualcomm keeps pushing on ahead.