Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

Smart Money...

The GDP came in halfway between the 1-2% growth I was expecting - and that was the "pro-forma" version which will in all probability be revised downward in subsequent reports. My guess is that this quarter will probably show negative growth and we will see a lot of warnings before the quarter is over.

Nothing has changed for AG though, and any hope he has to save the economy from recession and possible deflation rests on his ability to move the equity markets higher. For that reason only, I expect him to attempt to turn the markets back up early next week, perhaps after some initial selling. He will have to contend with some economic data, especially next Friday's employment report, but at this point I doubt that anyone is expecting good news from them so there should be no shock value there. SARS is a wild card, though.

If AG can get the markets to new highs, he will still be in the game with a relatively dead stretch of news ahead, but if he is unable to do so, the Greenspan Gambit is in deep trouble. Even if he is able to add to the rally, though, I expect it to be a short lived victory, with the markets turning back down to new lows soon.

mlsoft