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Thursday, February 02, 2006 9:06:33 PM
From Briefing.com: 5:01PM KLA-Tencor unveils next-generation E-Beam inspection system (KLAC) 52.64 -0.80 : Co announces the eS32 -- an extension of its mkt-leading e-beam inspection platform. The eS32 enables the industry's widest capture of subtle electrical and small physical defects, which are arising as chipmakers integrate numerous new materials and device architectures into volume production. As a cornerstone of KLAC's complete suite of next-generation inspection solutions for the emerging technology nodes, the eS32 sets new performance standards with advanced features and capabilities that accelerate the detection and resolution of systematic, yield-limiting defects in both front-end-of-line and back-end-of-line applications.
5:00PM QLogic announces 2-for-1 stock split (QLGC
4:28PM Power Integrations beats by $0.06, ex items; guides in-line (POWI) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 12.9% year/year to $37.9 mln vs the $37.9 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of 0.15-0.17 vs. $0.17 consensus.
4:23PM Bookham Tech misses by a penny, issues downside Q3 guidance (BKHM) 7.80 +0.84 : Reports Q2 (Dec) loss of $0.19 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.18); revenues fell 3.0% year/year to $60.7 mln vs the $59.5 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $51-54 vs. $58.06 mln consensus.
4:20PM Magma Design misses by a penny, issues in line Q4 guidance (LAVA) 10.46 -0.29 : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 10.7% year/year to $41.3 mln vs the $40.6 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.09-0.13 vs. $0.12 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $39-43 vs. $41.90 mln consensus.
4:19PM Electronic Arts misses by 4 cents, guides below consensus for Q4 (ERTS) : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.86 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.90; revenues fell 11.1% year/year to $1.27 bln vs the $1.26 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.06-0.14 vs. $0.15 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $550-600 mln vs. $630.24 mln consensus.
4:18PM AMIS Holdings reports in-line, ex items; guides below consensus (AMIS) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.17 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $139.8 mln vs the $142 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.13-0.15 vs. $0.16 consensus; sees Q1 revs down 2-4% sequentially or roughly $134.2-137.0 mln vs. $140.02 mln co
4:06PM Advanced Analogic files lawsuit against Linear Tech for unfair business practices (AATI) 15.13 +0.05 : Co announces that it has filed a lawsuit against Linear Technology Corporation for unfair business practices, interference with existing and prospective customers, trade libel, as well as a declaration of patent invalidity and non-infringement.
4:20 pm : Stocks opened lower, consolidating a modest portion of yesterday's gains amid renewed profit concerns. However, as fears of more Fed rate hikes mounted and rumors of a possible terrorist threat surfaced, the market deteriorated even further as widespread profit-taking closed virtually every industry to the downside.
Before the market opened, investors were inundated with earnings, weighing mixed reports against a plethora of strong monthly same-store sales figures and paying little attention to the day's only scheduled economic data. Nonetheless, upon further analysis of a preliminary read on Q4 productivity showed a 3.5% rise in unit labor costs, the fastest pace in more than a year, which fueled concern that wage inflation may force the Fed to ward off pricing pressures with additional tightening.
Another report which typically goes unnoticed, especially ahead of the monthly job report, was weekly initial claims. An unexpected decline to 273K, checking in below 300K for a third straight week, confirmed that overall labor conditions remain strong and that Friday's Jan. employment data may show a large gain in payrolls of 225-250K, exacerbating worries that more rate hikes are forthcoming. Combined with speculation surrounding the possible issuance of a specific threat alert, which was quickly quashed by the Dept of Homeland Security, and the bulls found little incentive to buy into diminishing hopes that a widely anticipated March 28 rate hike will be the Fed's last.
With all ten economic sectors closing lower, Technology turned in the worst performance, as losses of more than 1.0% in semiconductor, software, storage and hardware helped erased nearly half of the sector's 3.7% year-to-date gain. Materials, Utilities and Energy, three of the other best performing sectors so far this year, also succumbed to broad-based consolidation. Crude oil futures closing down 2.9% on the day weighed on Energy while a pullback in the year's best performing S&P industry group -- steel -- weighed on Materials. Industrials, yesterday's saving grace, was one of today's most influential sectors to lose ground following downside Q2 guidance from Tyco International (TYC 24.77 -1.33).
Even Consumer Discretionary, despite the retail group's ability to hold onto modest gains following stronger than expected monthly comps from more than 70% of the biggest names posting results, finished in negative territory. A Q4 earnings miss from Comcast (CMCSA 27.02 -0.97) and an analyst downgrade on General Motors (GM 23.52 -0.98) overshadowed huge gains from the likes of Starbucks (SBUX 34.40 +3.04), Gap (GPS 18.56 +0.58) and Federated Dept Stores (FD 69.68 +2.61). DJ30 -101.97 NASDAQ -28.99 SP500 -11.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2038/1008/2.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2333/965/1.90 bln
2:26 pm Clorox (CLX)
62.50 +2.54: Clorox today announced $0.55 in fiscal second quarter profit per share that included $0.04 per share in stock-based compensation expenses, surpassing analysts' average estimate by a penny. The company's top line rose 6% during the quarter, highlighted by sales gains of 6% in each of its three business segments - Household North America, Specialty and International. Primarily due to more shipments of home care, institutional, and Latin America products, volume increased 2%. Sales growth outpaced volume growth, though, due to the benefit of price increases and a favorable product mix.
With respect to its Household Group, which accounted for over 46% of total sales, price increases in name-brand laundry and cleaning products helped drive sales growth. For the Specialty Group, which represented about 38% of overall revenues, lower food and cat litter shipments offset increased shipments of GladWare containers, Glad trash bags, and Kingsford Charcoal products.
Like many of its peers, Clorox indicated that higher raw-material costs were a partially offsetting factor. In addition, increased marketing investment to support new products had an offsetting effect. Management added that it feels positive about the initial response to its price increases. Last quarter, Clorox said that any benefit to earnings from those price increases would not be realized until at least the third quarter.
The company reiterated its 4-7% sales growth outlook for its fiscal third quarter. In terms of EPS, Clorox now anticipates $0.68-0.73. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts' estimate is pegged near the midpoint of that range. Q4 sales are expected to rise 3-5%, and the company expects to register $1.04-1.14 in earnings per share. For FY06 (June), Clorox projects 4-6% top line growth. The company upped its full-year EPS forecast to $2.97-3.07, a range that includes an estimated $0.14-0.16 stock-based compensation charge. The FY06 EPS consensus estimate is currently pegged at $2.96. Continued benefits of price increases are expected to factor into the remainder of the year's performance.
CLX shares presently trade at 20.8x estimated full-year earnings, a valuation that falls between forward multiples of 22.8x for Proctor & Gamble (PG) and 19.3x for Colgate-Palmolive (CL). Briefing.com continues to hold a Market Weight opinion on the Consumer Staples sector, but we favor the household products industry in the space.
--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com
1:28 pm Whirlpool (WHR)
86.92 +6.44: Whirlpool shares traded higher on Thursday after the appliance maker reported better than expected quarterly results on strong consumer demand, price increases, and cost controls. The company also forecasted fiscal 2006 earnings that topped Wall Street's estimates and said it expects to complete the proposed merger with Maytag as early as this quarter.
For the fourth quarter, net earnings rose to $126 million, or $1.83 per share, from $97 million, or $1.44 per share, in the year ago period. That was $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.70. Sales increased 8.9% year/year to a record $3.95 billion for the period, beating analysts' estimate of $3.84 billion. Excluding the effects of currency translation, sales were still up approximately 8%.
Despite a challenging operating environment, punctuated by higher material and oil-related costs, the company managed to increase earnings and expand operating profit margins by one point in the latest period. Material and oil-related costs rose by approximately $55 million in the quarter. However, strong consumer demand for new product innovations, such as the Duet front-load washer-dryer pair and fast-fill refrigerator, positive price adjustments, and improved cost controls more than offset the impact of rising costs.
For 2006, Whirlpool said it expects new products and productivity savings to continue to drive earnings momentum despite unfavorable cost conditions. The company sees earnings in the range of $7.00 to $7.25 per share, excluding the impact of the proposed merger with Maytag. That represents an increase of 13% to 17% over fiscal 2005 earnings of $6.19 per share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts are expecting earnings of $6.34 per share. Based on this outlook, Whirlpool shares are trading at about 12.1x forward earnings and offer an enticing investment proposition given the company's strong sales performance and improved operating margin.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
12:09 pm Royal Caribbean (RCL)
43.66 +2.10: Royal Caribbean Cruises on Thursday reported a narrower than expected loss for the seasonally weak fourth quarter, and offered a positive outlook for the current fiscal year on strong cruise demand and improved energy conservation efforts. In turn, shares of the company trended sharply higher during the trading session, reversing a recent pull-back in the stock.
Despite stubbornly high fuel costs and the worst hurricane season in U.S. history, Royal Caribbean posted its second consecutive year of record earnings, helped by a significantly improved performance in the fourth quarter. For the most recent quarter, the Miami, Florida-based cruise operator reported a loss of $3.6 million, or ($0.02) per share, compared with a year ago loss of $25.8 million, or ($0.13) per share. Revenues for the period grew 6.7% to $1.03 billion from revenues of $964.6 million a year earlier. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the company to post a loss of ($0.23) per share on revenue of $1.03 billion.
Gross yields, a measure of total revenues per available passenger cruise days ("APCD"), increased 6.1%, while net yields, or gross yields less commissions, transportation, and other expenses, increased 8.2%, due in large part to a surge in demand for late bookings which drove higher ticket prices. At the same time, gross cruise costs, which include cruise operating, marketing, and selling expenses, and net cruise costs increased 5.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Fuel prices accounted for approximately 7% of the increase in net cruise costs, as non-fuel costs were up only 0.6% due to improved cost controls across the business.
Based on the better than expected results and strong trends for the current "wave season," including solid bookings and price levels, Royal Caribbean expects fiscal 2006 earnings to be in the range of $2.95 to $3.15 per share. That is well above of the Reuters Estimates consensus of $2.93. The company also anticipates net yields to increase between 2% and 4%, and net cruise costs to increase in the range of 3% to 5%. Higher fuel costs are expected to account for approximately 3% to 4% of this increase. For the first quarter, Royal Caribbean forecasted earnings of $0.45 to $0.50 per share, including a legal settlement of $0.16, versus the consensus estimate of $0.54 per share.
Given the healthy demand environment heading into the peak selling season, along with higher pricing, the outlook for cruise companies appears to be strong, particularly for Royal Caribbean, as well as Carnival Corp. (CCL), the world's largest cruise operator.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
11:58 am CVS Corp. (CVS)
28.60 +0.82: For its fourth quarter, CVS reported $0.48 in earnings per share. Excluding a non-recurring tax benefit and a gain related to a legal settlement, CVS delivered a profit of $0.41 per share. Versus the year-ago period, EPS grew more than 46%.
According to the company, its fourth quarter results were driven by healthy sales growth in its retail and Pharmacy Benefits Management businesses, as well as a significant improvement in its gross margin. With respect to the top line, net sales increased about 9% to $9.7 billion. Same-store sales rose 6.7% during the quarter. The inclusion of over a thousand acquired stores contributed a percentage point and one half to that figure. Total pharmacy sales, which represented nearly 70% of the retailer's top line, jumped 6.3%; third party prescription sales accounted for 94% of Q4 pharmacy sales. Front-end same-store sales increased 7.7%.
Solid expense control contributed to margin expansion. On its conference call, management asserted that the most significant drivers were the absence of last year's Eckerd name change events and the continued migration toward generic utilization. The company's gross margin improved 129 basis points to 27.76% while its operating margin rose 232 basis points to 6.20%.
For 2006, CVS forecasts EPS to be $1.54-1.58. Excluding a nickel in stock-based compensation charges, its full-year estimate is $1.59-1.63 and reflects about 17% EPS growth. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts expect the company to register $1.57 in FY06 EPS. Excluding the recently announced Osco acquisition, total sales are estimated to increase approximately 9-11%. The company foresees 5.5-7.5% same-store sales growth in 2006. At mid-year, CVS expects to complete the acquisition of 700 Sav-On and Osco drugstores from Albertson's. The deal is projected to increase CVS's market share in many key areas, particularly in Southern California, and it is expected to be accretive to earnings and cash flow during its first full year.
The drug store retail industry remains one of our favored areas within the Consumer Staples sector. CVS shares presently trade at 18x estimated full-year earnings, a price that is in line with the sector multiple and at a discount to Walgreen's (WAG) multiple of 25.1x earnings.
--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com
11:40 am EW Scripps (SSP)
50.27 +2.02: EW Scripps Co. reported a loss in the fourth quarter due to charges for writing down its Shop At Home business and consolidating newspaper operations in Denver. However, the company's results included strong revenue and profit growth at its television networks and at Shopzilla, the online comparison shopping service that was acquired last June.
For the most recent quarter, EW Scripps posted a loss of $603,000, or nil per share. That compares with net income of $91.3 million, or $0.55 per share, during the same quarter last year. However, the loss includes a $90.6 million write-down for Shop At Home due to ongoing losses and a "longer than previously expected path to profitability," and the impact of consolidating newspaper operations in Denver, which reduced earnings by $0.04 per share. Excluding these costs, the company would have earned $0.54 per share - five cents better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.49.
Revenue for Scripps during the fourth quarter rose 16.5% year/year to $706.8 million, driven by strong results at the company's Scripps Networks division and Shopzilla. At Scripps Networks, which includes HGTV, Food Network, DIY Network, Fine Living, and Great American Country, profits grew 34% to $122 million. Total segment revenue increased 21% to $247 million with advertising revenue up 27% to $202 million. Shopzilla segment profit in the fourth quarter was $20.3 million on revenue of $63.2 million, compared with profits of $5.6 million on $25.1 million in revenue in the prior year period. Conversely, the newspaper division's profit was $55.4 million, down from $69.1 million last year, reflecting higher depreciation expenses for equipment at the Denver operations, as well as higher newsprint prices.
Looking to the first quarter, the company expects to earn between $0.42 and $0.46 per share, excluding stock based compensation, versus the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.44. In the midst of slowing advertising growth and rising printing costs, business conditions for newspaper publishers remain extremely challenging. However, EW Scripps' focus on diversifying its revenue stream and reducing its dependence on its newspaper business should help strength its position as consumers and advertising spending continues to migrate toward the Internet. As such, the prospects for the company remain favorable compared to its peers.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
10:54 am Royal Dutch Shell
38.95: It certainly makes headline news to hear that one of the super-majors reported a drop in profits with energy prices at record levels. That is exactly what happened for Royal Dutch Shell, the world's third largest oil and gas company. RD, along with British Petroleum (BP), were two of the worst hit producers by the Gulf hurricanes last year, the fallout of which was still being felt in the fourth quarter.
Net income fell 4% to $4.4 bln with profits, excluding changes in inventory values, rising 3% to $5.4 bln. These results compare to record quarters produced by Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) of $10 bln and $4.14 bln, respectively. The last of the big five, BP and Total SA (TOT), are expected to report profits of roughly 4 billion each this month.
RD continues to lag its peers in terms of production with Q4 output falling 9% to 3.5 bln barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to -0.9% for Exxon and a 2.2% drop for BP. The company expects to produce at the lower end of the 3.5-3.8 mln BOE/d range in 2006. Like Exxon, RD aims to boost production with longer-term prospects in Russia, Nigeria, and Malaysia. RD is targeting organic growth (via the drill bit) to boost production, but we wouldn't count a possible acquisition out of the realm of possibilities.
Royal Dutch compounded the downside, announcing a $5 bln buyback program. The market was hoping for a much larger figure, somewhere in the range of BP's buyback of just over 11 billion dollars. We continue to suggest longer-term investors seek exposure to the oil producers with our preference for Chevron or Exxon. Our positive view of Exxon is based on its consistent earnings, leading returns (ROCE), superior financial strength, highly integrated business model, positive earnings momentum, and expectation of aggressive buybacks - topped off by an attractive valuation at 11.1x forward earnings.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
09:40 am Pulte Homes (PHM)
38.86: Pulte Homes, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, late Wednesday reported a 28% increase in fourth quarter profits, driven by strong home sales and higher prices. In addition, the Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based company backed its fiscal 2006 outlook, despite rising mortgage rates and other data indicating a slowdown in the housing market. While sales activity has slowed in the face of these macro challenges, large builders like Pulte Homes continue to perform well and are poised to gain further market share from smaller, more leveraged companies.
For the fourth quarter, Pulte Homes earned $531.7 million, or $2.03 per share, up from $415.2 million, or $1.59 per share, a year earlier. Total revenue rose 24.1% to $5.13 billion, from $4.14 billion. Higher revenues for the period were led by a 9% increase in average selling price to $321,000 and a 17% increase in total home sales to 15,670 homes. The latest results beat analysts' expectations for earnings of $1.97 per share on revenue of $5.14 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.
Net new orders for the quarter climbed to 9,821 from 8,940 homes. The value of the orders, meanwhile, increased to $3.3 billion from $2.7 billion. The company's ending backlog totaled 17,817 homes with a value of $6.3 billion, an increase of 22% and 12%, respectively. Given this strength, the company reaffirmed its forecast for the full year with earnings of $6.00 to $6.25 per share. That compares to the current analyst estimate of $6.09 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Separately, Pulte Homes announced that its board of directors authorized a $200 million buyback of its outstanding shares. During the fourth quarter, the company bought back approximately $102 million in stock, leaving roughly $20 million available under its previous authorization.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
09:30 am Tyco (TYC)
26.10: Profits fell in each of Tyco's four business units in the first quarter. Poor operational performance is exactly what landed Tyco in its current predicament. After much speculation, the company confirmed it was splitting into three separate business units in mid January. Tyco was able to beat the consensus estimate and its own forecast by a penny, with earnings, ex-items, of $0.39 per share. However, the feat was achieved through a lower tax rate. Revenues grew a marginal 1.1% to $9.7 bln.
We recommend investors sit this one out, as there are considerable execution risks as Tyco follows through on the divestiture plans this year. By its own admission, it has over 200 entities to unravel. The company hopes to complete the breakup by the first quarter in 2007. Once again, Tyco lowered the bar with second quarter guidance. It sees EPS of $0.41-0.42 versus the consensus EPS estimate of $0.47. For the full year, it hopes to achieve earnings of $1.85-1.92 versus the $1.89 consensus. Tyco will continue to support shares through buybacks, which will be necessary as we see a rocky road ahead for the industrial conglomerate.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
09:26 am Starbucks (SBUX)
31.36: With a profit of $0.22 per share, Starbucks delivered 29.4% EPS growth during its fiscal first quarter. The result includes the impact of stock-based compensation expenses, which were dilutive by $0.02 per share, and compares to the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.20. The company's top line rose approximately 22% to a record $1.93 billion.
During the month of January, comparable store sales increased 10%. According to the Briefing.com consensus, analysts had expected a 6.9% gain. Handcrafted espresso drinks, including a strong contribution from the new Cinnamon Dulce offerings, continued to drive sales. The company also credited its January same-store sales strength to a record number of gift cards that were activated during the holiday season. The company noted that growth at the 10% level is not sustainable, and that its comparable store sales target remains +3-7% for the remainder of the fiscal year.
For the quarter, double-digit increases in company-operated retail, licensing, and foodservice revenues drove a 21% jump in total U.S. net revenues. On a comparable store basis, sales in the U.S. increased 7%. Similarly solid growth within its international markets resulted in a 25% rise in International total net revenues. International comparable store sales grew 8%. International expansion remains a key element to Starbucks's growth story. On its conference call, management mentioned that Brazil, Russia, and India are among the new markets it is considering entering. Within both geographic segments, a higher number of customer transactions and an increase in the average value per transaction fueled the Q1 same-store sales results.
As a result of its strong first quarter performance, Starbucks upped its FY06 EPS range by a nickel to $0.68-0.70. Excluding the effect of stock-based compensation charges, the company forecasts $0.77-0.79 in profit per share. The low end of that range exceeds the consensus estimate by three cents. For the current quarter, Starbucks foresees EPS of $0.14; for fiscal Q3 and Q4, it anticipates EPS of $0.16-0.17.
SBUX shares trade at 42.6x estimated full-year earnings. We maintain an Underweight rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector, but Starbucks remains a standout in the space as it continues to demonstrate that its customers have not been deterred by higher energy prices and interest rates.
--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com
09:07 am Avon Products (AVP)
28.36: Avon is getting a makeover as part of a multiyear reorganization that could cost as much as $500 mln. The makeover includes workforce reductions and shifting operations overseas. Those efforts cut into Avon's fourth quarter profits, which fell 37% year/year to $183.2 mln or $0.40 per share. Sales grew a slim 3.8% to $2.4 bln and an even slimmer 3% on a constant currency basis. The company continues to face challenges in the US market, not to mention a stronger dollar.
Operating margins contracted 5.4 points to 12.4% with interest expenses soaring to fund borrowing for its share repurchase program. Revenues in the US fell 7% with the number of representatives down 4% compared to the prior year, as profits plummeted 20%. European sales grew 2% while Latin America soared 27%, ex-currency. Asia was notably weak, with sales falling 7% due to a poor quarter in China and Japan. China just recently lifted a ban on direct selling, resulting in less buying from boutiques in anticipation of the change.
Avon confirmed FY06 sales will be unchanged or rise marginally from $8.1 bln last year. The competitive environment remains intense with Avon battling heavyweights likes of Procter & Gamble (PG) and L'Oreal, which are able to sell their wares in discount drug stores, reaching a greater customer base. We remain negative on the stock, but continue to feel its future rests on its ability to expand its international presence, particularly in the emerging markets.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
08:59 am Comcast (CMCSA)
27.99: Following on the footsteps of a strong quarter from Time Warner Cable, Comcast missed consensus estimates by six cents. The world's largest cable-television provider reported that net income declined to $133 mln, or $0.06 per share, down from $423 mln, or $0.19 per share, in the prior year. The results were swayed by items below the operating line, as investment and other income declined to $58 mln from $553 mln last year due to a lower level of unrealized investment gains and a positive litigation impact in the prior year. A higher tax rate impacted the comparable per share figure of $0.09. Revenues rose almost 9.0% year/year to $5.41 bln.
The bright side was the net additions of basic and digital cable TV subscribers, along with high-speed Internet and voice service. Cable providers have taken a bundled approached in selling services, capturing higher prices and penetration rates. CMCSA added 40k new basic subs, which were negatively affected by the hurricanes, but that still reverses the preceding quarter's decline of 46k. Comcast has 8.5 mln Internet subs, adding 378k in the quarter, while phone customers grew 79k. Digital cable subs increased by 342k to 9.8 mln. These customers typically pay twice the monthly rate of basic cable of at least $60 per month, and also receive DVRs and high-def cable boxes.
The quarter should be viewed as a one-off, as the outlook for the company remains strong. Operating cash flows grew 8.5% to $2.1 bln with free cash flows gaining 40% to $699 mln. Comcast forecasted cable revenues will rise 9-10% this year. It also anticipates spending $165 per basic cable sub and a total capital expenditure plan of $3.6 bln, in line with last year. The company also announced the board has authorized a $5 bln stock repurchase plan. While this is certainly not apples to apples, CMCSA trades at EV/EBITDA of 10.3x compared to TWX at 7.2x.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
08:44 am Phelps Dodge (PD)
161.76: For the second time in two months, Phelps Dodge, one of the world's largest copper producers, will pay out a special dividend as part of its plan to return $1.5 bln back to shareholders. The special dividend will equate to $4 per share, costing the company $406 mln, payable on March 3rd to shareholders of record as of Valentine's Day. PD made a five dollar special dividend payment in December, which cost it $500 mln.
The company also announced that shares will split on a two-for-one basis on February 17th. PD, a suggested holding in the Active Portfolio, earned $1.56 bln last year as copper price reached historical levels. With ample cash on hand, shareholders had been pressuring the company to initiate buybacks. PD followed suit in December, announcing the targeted spending plan. The special dividend payment and split also provides indications of further sustainability of the current copper cycle. CEO Steven Whisler stated, "one of our priorities for cash is to reward shareholders." Separately, PD approved a $550 mln plan to build a copper mine in Safford, Arizona, that is expected to produce 240 mln pounds a year.
We have been long-time copper bulls, adding Phelps Dodge to our Active Portfolio in March of 2004; it has returned 100% to date. Increasing shareholder returns has always been an important aspect for our view on shares and we are pleased to see the board reward its shareholders. Today, our positive outlook remains due to the current tight copper market conditions that have resulted in record copper and molybdenum prices. Phelps Dodge's fourth quarter results released on January 31st did little to alter our view on the stock despite the company's conservative copper outlook. We expect further cost pressures and modest copper output due to mining challenges at its Candelaria mine, but these are issues facing all of the global producers. Shares are trading at a forward multiple of 10.0x.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
09:40 am Incyte: Morgan Joseph initiates Buy. Target $8. They note that the co's lead product candidate, DFC, is currently in Phase IIb development as a once-daily oral therapy for HIV. They anticipate positive results from this study, which should become available in 1H07. They also believe the co's CCR2 program, recently partnered with Pfizer (PFE), could translate into substantial revenues in the form of milestones and royalties. They believe newsflow from other internal programs, including novel sheddase inhibitors for cancer (currently in Phase I/II dose-ranging studies) and an oral CCR5 antagonist for HIV (Phase I slated to begin in 1H06), will boost investor interest.
09:39 am Northstar Realty: Banc of America Sec initiates Buy. Firm notes that they believe the co should continue to raise capital, purchase real estate debt and capture profit.
09:38 am Boyd Gaming: Nollenberger Capital initiates Buy. Target $59. The firm says that growth prospects for the co include its mega-casino project, Echelon Place, on the Las Vegas Strip, which they est should add about $9 per share. The firm says that the primary reasons for investment in BYD shares are: 1) favorable Las Vegas local market and Strip demographics; 2) potential multiple expansion based on rising exposure in Las Vegas; 3) a favorable balance of geographically diversified assets; and 4) an attractive share valuation. The firm also initiates PNK with a Neutral.
09:38 am UAL Corp.: Calyon Securities initiates Sell . Target $21. Calyon intiates the new shares of UAL Corp (UAUA) with a Sell and $21 tgt, which they say is based solely on valuation and is not meant to be an opinion on the co's chances of ultimately succeeding. Although they think the shares may temporarily trade up, they believe the market will adjust to the earnings potential and will not value the stock at a 15x P/E to get to the current $40 stock price.
09:36 am Synplicity: Needham & Co downgrades Buy to Hold. Firm nots that the co's modest rev growth rate combined with a substantial earnings headwind as the co's tax rate increases from almost zero in 2005 to 25% in 2006 and likely over 30% in 2007-conspire to make the stock's current valuation challenging. Therefore with the stock having almost doubled from its lows of last year and now trading at 27x their new calendar 2007 pro-forma EPS est of $0.36.
09:36 am Varian Medical: Oppenheimer downgrades Buy to Neutral. The firm says on the heels of the strong oncology orders and solid Q it reported last week, the stock has jumped roughly 10%. In the past three and a half months, VAR has appreciated 50%. Aside from the recent sharp upward move, they believe that the valuation is becoming stretched.
09:33 am BJ's Wholesale: KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald downgrades Buy to Hold. The firm notes that despite the Co's efforts, its general merchandise performance has not increased as they had hoped; negative comps continued in January. Also, the shares are near their former $34 price tgt.
5:00PM QLogic announces 2-for-1 stock split (QLGC
4:28PM Power Integrations beats by $0.06, ex items; guides in-line (POWI) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 12.9% year/year to $37.9 mln vs the $37.9 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of 0.15-0.17 vs. $0.17 consensus.
4:23PM Bookham Tech misses by a penny, issues downside Q3 guidance (BKHM) 7.80 +0.84 : Reports Q2 (Dec) loss of $0.19 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.18); revenues fell 3.0% year/year to $60.7 mln vs the $59.5 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $51-54 vs. $58.06 mln consensus.
4:20PM Magma Design misses by a penny, issues in line Q4 guidance (LAVA) 10.46 -0.29 : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 10.7% year/year to $41.3 mln vs the $40.6 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.09-0.13 vs. $0.12 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $39-43 vs. $41.90 mln consensus.
4:19PM Electronic Arts misses by 4 cents, guides below consensus for Q4 (ERTS) : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.86 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.90; revenues fell 11.1% year/year to $1.27 bln vs the $1.26 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.06-0.14 vs. $0.15 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $550-600 mln vs. $630.24 mln consensus.
4:18PM AMIS Holdings reports in-line, ex items; guides below consensus (AMIS) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.17 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $139.8 mln vs the $142 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.13-0.15 vs. $0.16 consensus; sees Q1 revs down 2-4% sequentially or roughly $134.2-137.0 mln vs. $140.02 mln co
4:06PM Advanced Analogic files lawsuit against Linear Tech for unfair business practices (AATI) 15.13 +0.05 : Co announces that it has filed a lawsuit against Linear Technology Corporation for unfair business practices, interference with existing and prospective customers, trade libel, as well as a declaration of patent invalidity and non-infringement.
4:20 pm : Stocks opened lower, consolidating a modest portion of yesterday's gains amid renewed profit concerns. However, as fears of more Fed rate hikes mounted and rumors of a possible terrorist threat surfaced, the market deteriorated even further as widespread profit-taking closed virtually every industry to the downside.
Before the market opened, investors were inundated with earnings, weighing mixed reports against a plethora of strong monthly same-store sales figures and paying little attention to the day's only scheduled economic data. Nonetheless, upon further analysis of a preliminary read on Q4 productivity showed a 3.5% rise in unit labor costs, the fastest pace in more than a year, which fueled concern that wage inflation may force the Fed to ward off pricing pressures with additional tightening.
Another report which typically goes unnoticed, especially ahead of the monthly job report, was weekly initial claims. An unexpected decline to 273K, checking in below 300K for a third straight week, confirmed that overall labor conditions remain strong and that Friday's Jan. employment data may show a large gain in payrolls of 225-250K, exacerbating worries that more rate hikes are forthcoming. Combined with speculation surrounding the possible issuance of a specific threat alert, which was quickly quashed by the Dept of Homeland Security, and the bulls found little incentive to buy into diminishing hopes that a widely anticipated March 28 rate hike will be the Fed's last.
With all ten economic sectors closing lower, Technology turned in the worst performance, as losses of more than 1.0% in semiconductor, software, storage and hardware helped erased nearly half of the sector's 3.7% year-to-date gain. Materials, Utilities and Energy, three of the other best performing sectors so far this year, also succumbed to broad-based consolidation. Crude oil futures closing down 2.9% on the day weighed on Energy while a pullback in the year's best performing S&P industry group -- steel -- weighed on Materials. Industrials, yesterday's saving grace, was one of today's most influential sectors to lose ground following downside Q2 guidance from Tyco International (TYC 24.77 -1.33).
Even Consumer Discretionary, despite the retail group's ability to hold onto modest gains following stronger than expected monthly comps from more than 70% of the biggest names posting results, finished in negative territory. A Q4 earnings miss from Comcast (CMCSA 27.02 -0.97) and an analyst downgrade on General Motors (GM 23.52 -0.98) overshadowed huge gains from the likes of Starbucks (SBUX 34.40 +3.04), Gap (GPS 18.56 +0.58) and Federated Dept Stores (FD 69.68 +2.61). DJ30 -101.97 NASDAQ -28.99 SP500 -11.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2038/1008/2.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2333/965/1.90 bln
2:26 pm Clorox (CLX)
62.50 +2.54: Clorox today announced $0.55 in fiscal second quarter profit per share that included $0.04 per share in stock-based compensation expenses, surpassing analysts' average estimate by a penny. The company's top line rose 6% during the quarter, highlighted by sales gains of 6% in each of its three business segments - Household North America, Specialty and International. Primarily due to more shipments of home care, institutional, and Latin America products, volume increased 2%. Sales growth outpaced volume growth, though, due to the benefit of price increases and a favorable product mix.
With respect to its Household Group, which accounted for over 46% of total sales, price increases in name-brand laundry and cleaning products helped drive sales growth. For the Specialty Group, which represented about 38% of overall revenues, lower food and cat litter shipments offset increased shipments of GladWare containers, Glad trash bags, and Kingsford Charcoal products.
Like many of its peers, Clorox indicated that higher raw-material costs were a partially offsetting factor. In addition, increased marketing investment to support new products had an offsetting effect. Management added that it feels positive about the initial response to its price increases. Last quarter, Clorox said that any benefit to earnings from those price increases would not be realized until at least the third quarter.
The company reiterated its 4-7% sales growth outlook for its fiscal third quarter. In terms of EPS, Clorox now anticipates $0.68-0.73. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts' estimate is pegged near the midpoint of that range. Q4 sales are expected to rise 3-5%, and the company expects to register $1.04-1.14 in earnings per share. For FY06 (June), Clorox projects 4-6% top line growth. The company upped its full-year EPS forecast to $2.97-3.07, a range that includes an estimated $0.14-0.16 stock-based compensation charge. The FY06 EPS consensus estimate is currently pegged at $2.96. Continued benefits of price increases are expected to factor into the remainder of the year's performance.
CLX shares presently trade at 20.8x estimated full-year earnings, a valuation that falls between forward multiples of 22.8x for Proctor & Gamble (PG) and 19.3x for Colgate-Palmolive (CL). Briefing.com continues to hold a Market Weight opinion on the Consumer Staples sector, but we favor the household products industry in the space.
--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com
1:28 pm Whirlpool (WHR)
86.92 +6.44: Whirlpool shares traded higher on Thursday after the appliance maker reported better than expected quarterly results on strong consumer demand, price increases, and cost controls. The company also forecasted fiscal 2006 earnings that topped Wall Street's estimates and said it expects to complete the proposed merger with Maytag as early as this quarter.
For the fourth quarter, net earnings rose to $126 million, or $1.83 per share, from $97 million, or $1.44 per share, in the year ago period. That was $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.70. Sales increased 8.9% year/year to a record $3.95 billion for the period, beating analysts' estimate of $3.84 billion. Excluding the effects of currency translation, sales were still up approximately 8%.
Despite a challenging operating environment, punctuated by higher material and oil-related costs, the company managed to increase earnings and expand operating profit margins by one point in the latest period. Material and oil-related costs rose by approximately $55 million in the quarter. However, strong consumer demand for new product innovations, such as the Duet front-load washer-dryer pair and fast-fill refrigerator, positive price adjustments, and improved cost controls more than offset the impact of rising costs.
For 2006, Whirlpool said it expects new products and productivity savings to continue to drive earnings momentum despite unfavorable cost conditions. The company sees earnings in the range of $7.00 to $7.25 per share, excluding the impact of the proposed merger with Maytag. That represents an increase of 13% to 17% over fiscal 2005 earnings of $6.19 per share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts are expecting earnings of $6.34 per share. Based on this outlook, Whirlpool shares are trading at about 12.1x forward earnings and offer an enticing investment proposition given the company's strong sales performance and improved operating margin.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
12:09 pm Royal Caribbean (RCL)
43.66 +2.10: Royal Caribbean Cruises on Thursday reported a narrower than expected loss for the seasonally weak fourth quarter, and offered a positive outlook for the current fiscal year on strong cruise demand and improved energy conservation efforts. In turn, shares of the company trended sharply higher during the trading session, reversing a recent pull-back in the stock.
Despite stubbornly high fuel costs and the worst hurricane season in U.S. history, Royal Caribbean posted its second consecutive year of record earnings, helped by a significantly improved performance in the fourth quarter. For the most recent quarter, the Miami, Florida-based cruise operator reported a loss of $3.6 million, or ($0.02) per share, compared with a year ago loss of $25.8 million, or ($0.13) per share. Revenues for the period grew 6.7% to $1.03 billion from revenues of $964.6 million a year earlier. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the company to post a loss of ($0.23) per share on revenue of $1.03 billion.
Gross yields, a measure of total revenues per available passenger cruise days ("APCD"), increased 6.1%, while net yields, or gross yields less commissions, transportation, and other expenses, increased 8.2%, due in large part to a surge in demand for late bookings which drove higher ticket prices. At the same time, gross cruise costs, which include cruise operating, marketing, and selling expenses, and net cruise costs increased 5.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Fuel prices accounted for approximately 7% of the increase in net cruise costs, as non-fuel costs were up only 0.6% due to improved cost controls across the business.
Based on the better than expected results and strong trends for the current "wave season," including solid bookings and price levels, Royal Caribbean expects fiscal 2006 earnings to be in the range of $2.95 to $3.15 per share. That is well above of the Reuters Estimates consensus of $2.93. The company also anticipates net yields to increase between 2% and 4%, and net cruise costs to increase in the range of 3% to 5%. Higher fuel costs are expected to account for approximately 3% to 4% of this increase. For the first quarter, Royal Caribbean forecasted earnings of $0.45 to $0.50 per share, including a legal settlement of $0.16, versus the consensus estimate of $0.54 per share.
Given the healthy demand environment heading into the peak selling season, along with higher pricing, the outlook for cruise companies appears to be strong, particularly for Royal Caribbean, as well as Carnival Corp. (CCL), the world's largest cruise operator.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
11:58 am CVS Corp. (CVS)
28.60 +0.82: For its fourth quarter, CVS reported $0.48 in earnings per share. Excluding a non-recurring tax benefit and a gain related to a legal settlement, CVS delivered a profit of $0.41 per share. Versus the year-ago period, EPS grew more than 46%.
According to the company, its fourth quarter results were driven by healthy sales growth in its retail and Pharmacy Benefits Management businesses, as well as a significant improvement in its gross margin. With respect to the top line, net sales increased about 9% to $9.7 billion. Same-store sales rose 6.7% during the quarter. The inclusion of over a thousand acquired stores contributed a percentage point and one half to that figure. Total pharmacy sales, which represented nearly 70% of the retailer's top line, jumped 6.3%; third party prescription sales accounted for 94% of Q4 pharmacy sales. Front-end same-store sales increased 7.7%.
Solid expense control contributed to margin expansion. On its conference call, management asserted that the most significant drivers were the absence of last year's Eckerd name change events and the continued migration toward generic utilization. The company's gross margin improved 129 basis points to 27.76% while its operating margin rose 232 basis points to 6.20%.
For 2006, CVS forecasts EPS to be $1.54-1.58. Excluding a nickel in stock-based compensation charges, its full-year estimate is $1.59-1.63 and reflects about 17% EPS growth. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts expect the company to register $1.57 in FY06 EPS. Excluding the recently announced Osco acquisition, total sales are estimated to increase approximately 9-11%. The company foresees 5.5-7.5% same-store sales growth in 2006. At mid-year, CVS expects to complete the acquisition of 700 Sav-On and Osco drugstores from Albertson's. The deal is projected to increase CVS's market share in many key areas, particularly in Southern California, and it is expected to be accretive to earnings and cash flow during its first full year.
The drug store retail industry remains one of our favored areas within the Consumer Staples sector. CVS shares presently trade at 18x estimated full-year earnings, a price that is in line with the sector multiple and at a discount to Walgreen's (WAG) multiple of 25.1x earnings.
--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com
11:40 am EW Scripps (SSP)
50.27 +2.02: EW Scripps Co. reported a loss in the fourth quarter due to charges for writing down its Shop At Home business and consolidating newspaper operations in Denver. However, the company's results included strong revenue and profit growth at its television networks and at Shopzilla, the online comparison shopping service that was acquired last June.
For the most recent quarter, EW Scripps posted a loss of $603,000, or nil per share. That compares with net income of $91.3 million, or $0.55 per share, during the same quarter last year. However, the loss includes a $90.6 million write-down for Shop At Home due to ongoing losses and a "longer than previously expected path to profitability," and the impact of consolidating newspaper operations in Denver, which reduced earnings by $0.04 per share. Excluding these costs, the company would have earned $0.54 per share - five cents better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.49.
Revenue for Scripps during the fourth quarter rose 16.5% year/year to $706.8 million, driven by strong results at the company's Scripps Networks division and Shopzilla. At Scripps Networks, which includes HGTV, Food Network, DIY Network, Fine Living, and Great American Country, profits grew 34% to $122 million. Total segment revenue increased 21% to $247 million with advertising revenue up 27% to $202 million. Shopzilla segment profit in the fourth quarter was $20.3 million on revenue of $63.2 million, compared with profits of $5.6 million on $25.1 million in revenue in the prior year period. Conversely, the newspaper division's profit was $55.4 million, down from $69.1 million last year, reflecting higher depreciation expenses for equipment at the Denver operations, as well as higher newsprint prices.
Looking to the first quarter, the company expects to earn between $0.42 and $0.46 per share, excluding stock based compensation, versus the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.44. In the midst of slowing advertising growth and rising printing costs, business conditions for newspaper publishers remain extremely challenging. However, EW Scripps' focus on diversifying its revenue stream and reducing its dependence on its newspaper business should help strength its position as consumers and advertising spending continues to migrate toward the Internet. As such, the prospects for the company remain favorable compared to its peers.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
10:54 am Royal Dutch Shell
38.95: It certainly makes headline news to hear that one of the super-majors reported a drop in profits with energy prices at record levels. That is exactly what happened for Royal Dutch Shell, the world's third largest oil and gas company. RD, along with British Petroleum (BP), were two of the worst hit producers by the Gulf hurricanes last year, the fallout of which was still being felt in the fourth quarter.
Net income fell 4% to $4.4 bln with profits, excluding changes in inventory values, rising 3% to $5.4 bln. These results compare to record quarters produced by Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) of $10 bln and $4.14 bln, respectively. The last of the big five, BP and Total SA (TOT), are expected to report profits of roughly 4 billion each this month.
RD continues to lag its peers in terms of production with Q4 output falling 9% to 3.5 bln barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to -0.9% for Exxon and a 2.2% drop for BP. The company expects to produce at the lower end of the 3.5-3.8 mln BOE/d range in 2006. Like Exxon, RD aims to boost production with longer-term prospects in Russia, Nigeria, and Malaysia. RD is targeting organic growth (via the drill bit) to boost production, but we wouldn't count a possible acquisition out of the realm of possibilities.
Royal Dutch compounded the downside, announcing a $5 bln buyback program. The market was hoping for a much larger figure, somewhere in the range of BP's buyback of just over 11 billion dollars. We continue to suggest longer-term investors seek exposure to the oil producers with our preference for Chevron or Exxon. Our positive view of Exxon is based on its consistent earnings, leading returns (ROCE), superior financial strength, highly integrated business model, positive earnings momentum, and expectation of aggressive buybacks - topped off by an attractive valuation at 11.1x forward earnings.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
09:40 am Pulte Homes (PHM)
38.86: Pulte Homes, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, late Wednesday reported a 28% increase in fourth quarter profits, driven by strong home sales and higher prices. In addition, the Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based company backed its fiscal 2006 outlook, despite rising mortgage rates and other data indicating a slowdown in the housing market. While sales activity has slowed in the face of these macro challenges, large builders like Pulte Homes continue to perform well and are poised to gain further market share from smaller, more leveraged companies.
For the fourth quarter, Pulte Homes earned $531.7 million, or $2.03 per share, up from $415.2 million, or $1.59 per share, a year earlier. Total revenue rose 24.1% to $5.13 billion, from $4.14 billion. Higher revenues for the period were led by a 9% increase in average selling price to $321,000 and a 17% increase in total home sales to 15,670 homes. The latest results beat analysts' expectations for earnings of $1.97 per share on revenue of $5.14 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.
Net new orders for the quarter climbed to 9,821 from 8,940 homes. The value of the orders, meanwhile, increased to $3.3 billion from $2.7 billion. The company's ending backlog totaled 17,817 homes with a value of $6.3 billion, an increase of 22% and 12%, respectively. Given this strength, the company reaffirmed its forecast for the full year with earnings of $6.00 to $6.25 per share. That compares to the current analyst estimate of $6.09 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Separately, Pulte Homes announced that its board of directors authorized a $200 million buyback of its outstanding shares. During the fourth quarter, the company bought back approximately $102 million in stock, leaving roughly $20 million available under its previous authorization.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
09:30 am Tyco (TYC)
26.10: Profits fell in each of Tyco's four business units in the first quarter. Poor operational performance is exactly what landed Tyco in its current predicament. After much speculation, the company confirmed it was splitting into three separate business units in mid January. Tyco was able to beat the consensus estimate and its own forecast by a penny, with earnings, ex-items, of $0.39 per share. However, the feat was achieved through a lower tax rate. Revenues grew a marginal 1.1% to $9.7 bln.
We recommend investors sit this one out, as there are considerable execution risks as Tyco follows through on the divestiture plans this year. By its own admission, it has over 200 entities to unravel. The company hopes to complete the breakup by the first quarter in 2007. Once again, Tyco lowered the bar with second quarter guidance. It sees EPS of $0.41-0.42 versus the consensus EPS estimate of $0.47. For the full year, it hopes to achieve earnings of $1.85-1.92 versus the $1.89 consensus. Tyco will continue to support shares through buybacks, which will be necessary as we see a rocky road ahead for the industrial conglomerate.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
09:26 am Starbucks (SBUX)
31.36: With a profit of $0.22 per share, Starbucks delivered 29.4% EPS growth during its fiscal first quarter. The result includes the impact of stock-based compensation expenses, which were dilutive by $0.02 per share, and compares to the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.20. The company's top line rose approximately 22% to a record $1.93 billion.
During the month of January, comparable store sales increased 10%. According to the Briefing.com consensus, analysts had expected a 6.9% gain. Handcrafted espresso drinks, including a strong contribution from the new Cinnamon Dulce offerings, continued to drive sales. The company also credited its January same-store sales strength to a record number of gift cards that were activated during the holiday season. The company noted that growth at the 10% level is not sustainable, and that its comparable store sales target remains +3-7% for the remainder of the fiscal year.
For the quarter, double-digit increases in company-operated retail, licensing, and foodservice revenues drove a 21% jump in total U.S. net revenues. On a comparable store basis, sales in the U.S. increased 7%. Similarly solid growth within its international markets resulted in a 25% rise in International total net revenues. International comparable store sales grew 8%. International expansion remains a key element to Starbucks's growth story. On its conference call, management mentioned that Brazil, Russia, and India are among the new markets it is considering entering. Within both geographic segments, a higher number of customer transactions and an increase in the average value per transaction fueled the Q1 same-store sales results.
As a result of its strong first quarter performance, Starbucks upped its FY06 EPS range by a nickel to $0.68-0.70. Excluding the effect of stock-based compensation charges, the company forecasts $0.77-0.79 in profit per share. The low end of that range exceeds the consensus estimate by three cents. For the current quarter, Starbucks foresees EPS of $0.14; for fiscal Q3 and Q4, it anticipates EPS of $0.16-0.17.
SBUX shares trade at 42.6x estimated full-year earnings. We maintain an Underweight rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector, but Starbucks remains a standout in the space as it continues to demonstrate that its customers have not been deterred by higher energy prices and interest rates.
--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com
09:07 am Avon Products (AVP)
28.36: Avon is getting a makeover as part of a multiyear reorganization that could cost as much as $500 mln. The makeover includes workforce reductions and shifting operations overseas. Those efforts cut into Avon's fourth quarter profits, which fell 37% year/year to $183.2 mln or $0.40 per share. Sales grew a slim 3.8% to $2.4 bln and an even slimmer 3% on a constant currency basis. The company continues to face challenges in the US market, not to mention a stronger dollar.
Operating margins contracted 5.4 points to 12.4% with interest expenses soaring to fund borrowing for its share repurchase program. Revenues in the US fell 7% with the number of representatives down 4% compared to the prior year, as profits plummeted 20%. European sales grew 2% while Latin America soared 27%, ex-currency. Asia was notably weak, with sales falling 7% due to a poor quarter in China and Japan. China just recently lifted a ban on direct selling, resulting in less buying from boutiques in anticipation of the change.
Avon confirmed FY06 sales will be unchanged or rise marginally from $8.1 bln last year. The competitive environment remains intense with Avon battling heavyweights likes of Procter & Gamble (PG) and L'Oreal, which are able to sell their wares in discount drug stores, reaching a greater customer base. We remain negative on the stock, but continue to feel its future rests on its ability to expand its international presence, particularly in the emerging markets.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
08:59 am Comcast (CMCSA)
27.99: Following on the footsteps of a strong quarter from Time Warner Cable, Comcast missed consensus estimates by six cents. The world's largest cable-television provider reported that net income declined to $133 mln, or $0.06 per share, down from $423 mln, or $0.19 per share, in the prior year. The results were swayed by items below the operating line, as investment and other income declined to $58 mln from $553 mln last year due to a lower level of unrealized investment gains and a positive litigation impact in the prior year. A higher tax rate impacted the comparable per share figure of $0.09. Revenues rose almost 9.0% year/year to $5.41 bln.
The bright side was the net additions of basic and digital cable TV subscribers, along with high-speed Internet and voice service. Cable providers have taken a bundled approached in selling services, capturing higher prices and penetration rates. CMCSA added 40k new basic subs, which were negatively affected by the hurricanes, but that still reverses the preceding quarter's decline of 46k. Comcast has 8.5 mln Internet subs, adding 378k in the quarter, while phone customers grew 79k. Digital cable subs increased by 342k to 9.8 mln. These customers typically pay twice the monthly rate of basic cable of at least $60 per month, and also receive DVRs and high-def cable boxes.
The quarter should be viewed as a one-off, as the outlook for the company remains strong. Operating cash flows grew 8.5% to $2.1 bln with free cash flows gaining 40% to $699 mln. Comcast forecasted cable revenues will rise 9-10% this year. It also anticipates spending $165 per basic cable sub and a total capital expenditure plan of $3.6 bln, in line with last year. The company also announced the board has authorized a $5 bln stock repurchase plan. While this is certainly not apples to apples, CMCSA trades at EV/EBITDA of 10.3x compared to TWX at 7.2x.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
08:44 am Phelps Dodge (PD)
161.76: For the second time in two months, Phelps Dodge, one of the world's largest copper producers, will pay out a special dividend as part of its plan to return $1.5 bln back to shareholders. The special dividend will equate to $4 per share, costing the company $406 mln, payable on March 3rd to shareholders of record as of Valentine's Day. PD made a five dollar special dividend payment in December, which cost it $500 mln.
The company also announced that shares will split on a two-for-one basis on February 17th. PD, a suggested holding in the Active Portfolio, earned $1.56 bln last year as copper price reached historical levels. With ample cash on hand, shareholders had been pressuring the company to initiate buybacks. PD followed suit in December, announcing the targeted spending plan. The special dividend payment and split also provides indications of further sustainability of the current copper cycle. CEO Steven Whisler stated, "one of our priorities for cash is to reward shareholders." Separately, PD approved a $550 mln plan to build a copper mine in Safford, Arizona, that is expected to produce 240 mln pounds a year.
We have been long-time copper bulls, adding Phelps Dodge to our Active Portfolio in March of 2004; it has returned 100% to date. Increasing shareholder returns has always been an important aspect for our view on shares and we are pleased to see the board reward its shareholders. Today, our positive outlook remains due to the current tight copper market conditions that have resulted in record copper and molybdenum prices. Phelps Dodge's fourth quarter results released on January 31st did little to alter our view on the stock despite the company's conservative copper outlook. We expect further cost pressures and modest copper output due to mining challenges at its Candelaria mine, but these are issues facing all of the global producers. Shares are trading at a forward multiple of 10.0x.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
09:40 am Incyte: Morgan Joseph initiates Buy. Target $8. They note that the co's lead product candidate, DFC, is currently in Phase IIb development as a once-daily oral therapy for HIV. They anticipate positive results from this study, which should become available in 1H07. They also believe the co's CCR2 program, recently partnered with Pfizer (PFE), could translate into substantial revenues in the form of milestones and royalties. They believe newsflow from other internal programs, including novel sheddase inhibitors for cancer (currently in Phase I/II dose-ranging studies) and an oral CCR5 antagonist for HIV (Phase I slated to begin in 1H06), will boost investor interest.
09:39 am Northstar Realty: Banc of America Sec initiates Buy. Firm notes that they believe the co should continue to raise capital, purchase real estate debt and capture profit.
09:38 am Boyd Gaming: Nollenberger Capital initiates Buy. Target $59. The firm says that growth prospects for the co include its mega-casino project, Echelon Place, on the Las Vegas Strip, which they est should add about $9 per share. The firm says that the primary reasons for investment in BYD shares are: 1) favorable Las Vegas local market and Strip demographics; 2) potential multiple expansion based on rising exposure in Las Vegas; 3) a favorable balance of geographically diversified assets; and 4) an attractive share valuation. The firm also initiates PNK with a Neutral.
09:38 am UAL Corp.: Calyon Securities initiates Sell . Target $21. Calyon intiates the new shares of UAL Corp (UAUA) with a Sell and $21 tgt, which they say is based solely on valuation and is not meant to be an opinion on the co's chances of ultimately succeeding. Although they think the shares may temporarily trade up, they believe the market will adjust to the earnings potential and will not value the stock at a 15x P/E to get to the current $40 stock price.
09:36 am Synplicity: Needham & Co downgrades Buy to Hold. Firm nots that the co's modest rev growth rate combined with a substantial earnings headwind as the co's tax rate increases from almost zero in 2005 to 25% in 2006 and likely over 30% in 2007-conspire to make the stock's current valuation challenging. Therefore with the stock having almost doubled from its lows of last year and now trading at 27x their new calendar 2007 pro-forma EPS est of $0.36.
09:36 am Varian Medical: Oppenheimer downgrades Buy to Neutral. The firm says on the heels of the strong oncology orders and solid Q it reported last week, the stock has jumped roughly 10%. In the past three and a half months, VAR has appreciated 50%. Aside from the recent sharp upward move, they believe that the valuation is becoming stretched.
09:33 am BJ's Wholesale: KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald downgrades Buy to Hold. The firm notes that despite the Co's efforts, its general merchandise performance has not increased as they had hoped; negative comps continued in January. Also, the shares are near their former $34 price tgt.
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