Biotech Values

[oc631]

With all this discussion about M&A on this board today, perhaps we should have a survey [prediction] about which biotech company will be the first to be acquired in 2014.

I think I know where you are going with this so I'll beat you to the punch. After releasing the remaining Phase-3 data, and before filing the NDA, ABBV makes a very generous offer for ENTA. They bring the HCV combo solely in-house and adopt a pipeline of assets which potentially could allow them to expand to other genotypes.


At this point there's little reason to believe the GILD and ABBV combos won't be approved for GT1. Taking this into consideration, ENTA is the only small cap play within the huge oral HCV space (guaranteed entry). Medivir (simeprevir) is an off-label play and a potential late entry years down the road. Other small HCV companies are a crap-shoot. The risk of them going out of business is as high as reaching the market. NVS could make a bid for IDIX to pursue opportunities in GT3 but I wouldn't expect a high premium over the company's existing valuation.