I find your reasoning perfectly logical, 9lt98x. The issues with the debt are, indeed, huge and growing, but time and the timing of future events can be a challenge when it comes to forecasting. That is especially true when the trading of paper contracts is subject to manipulation. Having said all that, a strong uptrend should be in place by the middle of 2014, and the move up should then last a long time. It's difficult to be patient in times like these!
Looks like the bottom is in. With all the issues with the debt, we should be going higher from here on out. IMO
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