Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mish]

But there is a lot in recoveries that depends on consumer and business confidence, and that part can be "manipulated" one way or the other.

Zeev

To an extent wouldn't you say?
Once consumers are tapped out they are tapped out.
Good feelings after the war are not going to cut it.
Under reporting and lies about employment will not do it either. Jobs are needed and jobs are vanishing. Unless jobs are found, and found soon, this ballgame could be over.

They are trying to coax businesses to spend when the problem is there is no profit in it.

In short, I believe the manipulation phase (led by artificially low interest rates and a housing refi boom) is just about over. Lower interest rates from here on out are not going to help the consumer feel any better. Is there yet one more refi boom to be had? I was wrong before but if there is one, they would be smart to delay it till next year if they want to help Bush when it matters.

Is Greenspan stupid enough to lower rates 1/2 point now?
Would 1/4 point even affect long term rates at all?

M