•Total fabrication demand forecast to rise by 4% in 2013
•After two years of contraction, we expect industrial offtake to rise by 1% this year on the back of improved global economic activity
•Demand for jewelry and silverware is expected to post robust growth of 6% in 2013 as strong growth in emerging markets and the US offset demand contraction in Europe
•In contrast, photographic demand for silver continues to decline as part of its secular trend as consumers switch towards digital technology
•After a record 2011 and a dip in 2012, demand for coins has bounced back this year, and we forecast a y-o-y growth of 19%
SUPPLY SUMMARY
•Total supply forecast to be marginally higher (+0.7%) year-on-year
•Mine production expected to rise by 28 Moz or 4% in 2013, driven by increased supply from both the primary and by-product sectors
•We estimate producer de-hedging of 35 Moz during 2013 as producers continue to deliver into outstanding positions or take advantage of lower prices to close out existing ‘in-the-money’ contracts
•Scrap supply is set to contract by 8% in 2013 due to lower prices and a decline in the availability of ‘close to market’ stocks
•Government sales largely unpredictable but GFMS expect levels will be the same as 2012 around 7 Moz
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