Roy,
No matter how you slice the numbers, and I have played around with numbers in your range as well, if GenStrip can reach its full potential, then DECN will do very well.
I am not going to say anything that hasn't been said here before so I do this more for myself and I do it with all of the stocks I own when I re-evaluate my positions but DECN, especially with all the present decisions in the courts, has a very high reward to risk ratio here. With many people/companies/organizations looking at the best bang for their health care dollar, if GenStrip gets any recognition, then it might become the mandated strip to be used with certain types of Glucose monitors. Then Roy's evaluation could be very low. Which is why some company may come in and offer, what is based on today's share price, a nice looking offer, but looking at the long term potential, may leave a lot of money on the table.
There also has been talk of new products. I wonder if it will be something that DECN will do with their expertise, IP, that they have in EMR, or if they will come out with their own monitor, as long as it doesn't infringe on anything that J&J or any of the other monitoring companies has IP on.
Here are the risks that I see for GenStrip and DECN, not in any type of order of importance and certainly not an exhaustive list. First, if the strip doesn't get any traction. Being available at Walmart, Amazon and EBay like others have posted here should help prevent that but it still could happen. Another risk is if J&J engineers a new monitoring system that the strip doesn't work with which could limit the long term success that DECN has. Or, J&J finds another way to mess with DECN legally again. On certain matters, J&J has had some questionable ethics so I would not put that past them. So I think there are risks, just not the ones that seem to be posted here ad nauseum, which don't , at least for me, hold a lot of credibility. And the risk, I think, has gone down significantly the past few months. Bad things can always happen.
So even though there has been some very nice share price appreciation here the past few months, I can see a much higher share price in the not so distant future, if just a few things fall into place which it looks like they are doing. A small pullback doesn't bother me. I don't have the time, or stomach, to watch a stock all the time. I like to pick stocks which I think have a good chance of success and then ride them out, taking small amounts off the table to start to recoup the initial investment. With DECN, I think I will start looking at selling a small part of my position somewhere north of $1.50, a number of where I think it will go above in the short term.
Just my thoughts here. Reasonable people can disagree.
Good luck out there.
Neal
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