Biotech Values

[ciotera]

Re: long term HCV opportunity

I'm not arguing that the numbers aren't theoretically there. They are, but they are not as readily accessible as the analysts believe them to be. Once the initial bolus is depleted and warehousing is out of the picture (which I think can happen within the first year of the IFN-free era), the market will return to its steady-state dynamics sourcing business from new diagnoses each year which are not enough to back the annual revenue numbers that are being thrown around.

Sure, there will be an effort to increase awareness and diagnosis rates, both through CDC/guidelines and by companies themselves through DTC and detailing, but that's a hard nut to crack, requires a lot of investment and takes a long time. Also, keep in mind that majority of newly diagnosed patients will have low fibrosis and technically will not need to be treated right away (especially if the treatment costs >100k and they have to pay some part of it). And if sales do get very large (which they will in the initial years), payers (even in the US) will step in and start controlling the costs (passing them more to patients, restricting treatment to F3/F4s, etc.)

So, I don't think this is an attractive commercial opportunity long-term. BMS, for instance, has far more attractive and durable opportunities in the IO space, which I think is what they have decided to focus on.