COMP 1280 target during depression of 2007
NO PROBLEMO-
Started last year: 2 mil jobs added this "recovery"
+ 850,000 "BLS (BS) Birth Death Model" -phony assumed jobs
creation by small business
+ 500,000 Government - layoffs post debt ceiling breach
+1,500,000 Housing Construction and related "services"-
already going now, start with mortgage "professionals"
- 900,000 manufacturing
Big-Ticket Factory Orders Hit All-Time High
Thursday January 26, 11:17 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Orders for Big-Ticket Factory Goods Climb to All-Time High in 2005; Jobless Claims Increase
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Orders to American factories for big-ticket manufactured goods posted a third consecutive increase in December, closing out a record year for the nation's factories.
The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose by 1.3 percent in December to $228.1 billion as demand for military aircraft, machinery and autos all posted strong gains.
For all of 2005, orders increased by 8.2 percent to an all-time high of $2.51 trillion. Orders for durable goods had risen by 10 percent in 2004 and 4.2 percent in 2003 after posting declines in 2002 and 2001, the year the country was in recession.
In other economic news, the Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 283,000. That was up by 11,000 from the previous week. However, the four-week moving average for claims dropped to 288,750, the lowest level since July 2000.
The 1.3 percent increase in orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, followed even stronger gains of 5.4 percent in November, a month when demand for commercial aircraft had soared, and 3.1 percent in October.
In December, the strength was led by a 6.5 percent jump in demand for machinery. Transportation posted a solid gain of 1.9 percent as demand for new cars and trucks shot up by 6.6 percent following declines in October and September as automakers struggled to trim an overhang of unsold cars.
Orders for commercial aircraft, a very volatile category, fell by 8.1 percent in December, but that decline followed huge gains of 139.3 percent in November and 51.6 percent in October.
[b[COMPLETE B*SHIT - Look at Booz Allen head Ralph Schrader's Davos comments: Excluding transportation, orders rose by 0.9 percent, compared to a 0.6 percent gain in November. It was the best showing in this category since a 5.1 percent jump last August. The category that covers non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft was up by a strong 3.5 percent in December following much smaller gains in November and October, indicating that businesses are boosting their investment plans. "Analysts" (read shills) are looking for manufacturing to be a source of strength this year, spurred by increased investment by businesses to expand and modernize their operations.
WALL STREET SPIN DOCTORS AT WORK
by Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital
January 19, 2006
When it comes to spin, Washington is no match for Wall Street.
Last Thursday, Wall Street celebrated the narrowing of America's gargantuan $68.1 billion October trade deficit to a somewhat less horrific $64.2 billion in November. The dip was a whopping $2 billion more than consensus expectations. Ignored was the fact that November’s deficit was still the third largest monthly deficit ever, and regardless of expectations, an unmitigated economic disaster. Such a "celebration" is akin to a student celebrating an “F” on his report card, as it represents an improvement on the “F-“ earned the prior semester.
There was also no shortage of pundits applying the now routine spin that America’s large trade deficit results from its superior economic growth. Since deficits are now regarded as a sign of economic strength, surpluses must evidence the opposite. This is akin to our student instead attempting to convince his parents that the “F” on his report card actually stands for fabulous.
The obfuscation continued last Friday with the release of a sharp .9% increase in December producer prices. Conned by Wall Street spin doctors, the media again focused on the meaningless .1% rise in the so called “core” rate, and expressed relief that higher energy prices did not “bleed into the core.” Who cares if one highly manipulated subset of the PPI did not rise if overall prices rose sharply? All the while Wall Street ignored the best indicator of resurgent inflation; gold prices surging to a new twenty-five year high.
Yesterday the spin doctors demonstrated their dexterity by spinning two balls simultaneously. First they celebrated the benign .1% decline in December consumer prices, while ignoring the fact that the decline resulted from falling energy prices that have recently reversed course, surging by 15% in the past two weeks. Also unnoticed was the obvious double standard in that last Thursday’s big increase in the headline PPI was downplayed as being meaningless, while yesterday’s benign increase in headline CPI was cheered as great news. That’s Wall Street’s equivalent of “heads I win, tails you lose.”
Later that morning news that foreigners purchased a record $54.6 billion in Treasury debt in November was heralded as still more good news. The spin was that this unprecedented increase in foreign lending indicates growing foreign confidence in America. This is analogous to a credit card junkie celebrating a record month of charging as as proof of continued bank confidence in his creditworthiness.
The only “good’ news is that the absence of strong foreign demand for Treasuries would be an even bigger short-term disaster. With little in the way of domestic savings to pick up the slack, waning foreign demand would cause treasury prices to collapse, sending interest rates soaring, asset prices tumbling, and the U.S. economy into a severe recession. Yesterday’s news that foreigners continued to spike America’s punch bowl merely assures that our ultimate financial hangover will be that much more debilitating.
The bottom line is that accumulating record amounts of foreign debt to finance consumption is an economic fiasco that can only lead to a substantial reduction in America’s future standard of living. Celebrating our increasing debt will ultimately prove to be nothing more than a bit of comic relief in the final chapter of this developing American economic tragedy.
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