Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

"and with mlsoft leaving the bear den for now, I feel as the almost only bear on this market."
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Zeev...

I have not really left the bear den, just stretching my legs a bit <gg>. Over anything but the short term, I remain very bearish on both the economy and the markets and expect new lows before too long.

Even over the short term, everything I see (both fundamental and technical) argues for a top here but that was also true well before current levels, yet the markets keep going up led by unnatural buying patterns in the same relatively small group of stocks and daily ramps in the futures and $USD. It is no secret that I see all that as intervention by Greenspan and that view is the only one that explains everything we are seeing here, including the fact that neither technicals (including indicators) nor fundamentals mean anything in this market, leaving most folks talking to themselves as they look at their charts. It is also the only view that has had reasonably accurate predictive ability in the market of late.

Greenspan has only one hope to save the economy and that is to reflate the economy by driving the markets up thereby giving the consumer a new source of capital to continue spending. If he allows a big selloff here (as all the charts suggest), that task will be almost impossible and his legacy will be the aftermath of the bubble rather than being the "father of the New Economy." I expect him to play his hand and attempt to give the markets a new upside leg, knowing that he could both run the shorts and get some mo-mo players excited if he were to be successful, not to mention getting the opportunity to slowly dump some recently accumulated inventory at a profit. I don't think he would have expended all the effort and funds it took to get this far and then just give up without a fight.

I have no idea whether he will succeed in generating a new upside leg, but I am standing aside to see what happens. Even if he does get a new up-leg going, I think it will be short lived with a bad ending as the reality of the fundamentals finally sets in at some point - a massive bull trap.

mlsoft