I agree. A close below 2200 could be bad for the bullish case. I plan on using that as my stop unless the ST McClellans are oversold and due for a bounce.
I think a weekly close below the 50WEMA would be the final straw because that would cause failure of the bullish parabolic (line up the NASDAQ lows: Aug03, Aug04, Apr05, Oct05 to form a parabolic).
Jan 4 - We have transitioned into a bear market. Completely different rules apply.
May 23 - IMO, any price at/above this close makes a great Nasdaq/SP500 short.