The Black Box

[CaribbeanJim]

There are a few outside factors that could work toward a major bounce next week:

Carl Swenlin thinks Gold is going to begin a pullback/correction: http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/060119_gold.html
And the USD supports this view. I see that the USD is stabilizing at the 200DEMA (and 50WEMA) for the past two weeks to support a bounce. If money comes out of Gold, it could go into the markets and/or USD.

Oil has reached its neckline resistance:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$WTIC,uu[w,a]daclynay[d20050218...

If we have a pullback in mining stocks and oil, maybe that money could fuel other sectors of the market. Financials and Technology lead the breakout recently and they took the biggest dive on Friday. My current thought is that was just a major shakeout for a larger and faster move up.

On Friday, the break in the 3-year VXN and touch of the upper bollinger band supports a big move. It is at a location where bounces have occured in the past.