The Black Box

[mjk]

I think we've gone about as far as we can and we're going to go, and expect a reversal monday after some possible early weakness.

I've been looking at the 2380-2406 area as the critical parabolic breakout area for months now, and expected some violent downswings to occur once we got close...really a way to give bears one last bit of hope before we explode is the way I see it. I thought we'd get closer to 2380 first, ~2360, but 2332 was fine and so is the drop to the 50 day. I think we now head to 2380, possibly get another pause there, then one more swift drop down like the current one once we tag ~2406...if we bounce back quick after that drop and take out 2406, we go nuts to ~3060 in mid july, which is what I expect to happen.

If we plunge further below the 50 on monday and don't recover, it'd make me think we may be headed back into the trading range for a bit longer, which will suck...doesn't kill the bull, but delays the upside again. All JMHO.

Good luck to you.