Biotech Values

[dav1234]

ONTX ugly fade this month .http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ONTX&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1


Onconova Therapeutics (ONTX) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing small molecule drug candidates to treat cancer. Onconova currently is testing its leading drug Rigosertib for several indications. The indications that Rigosertib would address are worth globally over $1B each. If the company announces positive data for any of these indications, the stock would be incredibly undervalued at the current market cap.

Onconova has three upcoming catalysts that should rally the stock:

1. Onconova expects to present Phase II data for Rigosertib Oral in lower risk MDS in December 2013.

2. Onconova expects to present Phase III survival data for Rigosertib IV in higher risk MDS in the fourth quarter of 2013 or the first quarter of 2014.

3. Onconova expects to present Phase III data for Rigosertib IV in pancreatic cancer in the fourth quarter of 2013 or the first quarter of 2014. Pancreatic cancer is one of the worst, if not the worst and most deadly form of cancer, so any positive treatments for it would be significant.

With the above 3 strong catalysts, we expect that Onconova will have a significant run into the end of the year. Since it is recent IPO, investors have yet to fully study this company's strong speculation value. With a current market cap of $570.39M, we feel Onconova is undervalued here, considering the company is the only biotech IPO this year that is actually in later Phase III clinical testing.

We think that Onconova could appreciate to around $40 a share, representing roughly an $800M market cap before the data points are all released. If data is positive, we expect close to $80 a share, representing a $1.6B market cap. under normal overall market conditions. While $1.6B market cap might seem high, we encourage investors to study other companies in its segment with similar progress points in pipeline development, and compare their market caps to Onconova.

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1637352


Anyone have thoughts?