Biotech Values

[ciotera]

ENTA Valuation Model

What makes you think that there is a treater capacity constraint? Do you have any supporting evidence for this? If treatments become so simple, couldn't the treater pool expand to PCPs who don't treat now?

But more importantly, what makes you think that the actual annual patient demand could ever get so high as to exceed this capacity?

And even more importantly, what makes you think that if this category grows to that level of annual expenditure, the payers will not limit treatment to F3/F4s like they do in Brazil or Canada already? I would, if I were them.. what's the point of spending so much money to treat minimal disease that only has single digit chance of leading to HCC? Why not wait and only treat those who have higher chance of progression since efficacy is only marginally worse in cirrhotics?

Overall, I think you are over-optimistic about this market, just like every analyst out there. For instance, there is no reason to believe that IFN-free regimens are going to change the fundamental boom-and-bust dynamic (unless there is a payer or infrastructure constraint). In fact, they are likely going to amplify it.