Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

I think that the assumption that a yield curve inversion means a coming recession is like the proof that all odd numbers are prime numbers, 1 is, 3 is 5 is 7 is 9, a statistical error, 11 is 13 is and "so on"... the yield curves inversions in the 60' to the 80' (the few that were) where, according to Milton Friedman, "accidental" coincidences with coming recessions. According to Friedman, even if a yield curve inversion were to occur, that does not always means a recession is pending. Right now, the economy is still in that "goldilock" state of not too hot, not too cold. Good growth in jobs will cause the "tapped out" consumer to find way to spend even more. Hopefully, we will start and see the impact of that growth on reduction in budget deficits.