Tuesday, September 10, 2013 10:55:14 AM
Early start to fire season should not surprise anyone
Early bushfires should surprise no one: The warning signs were all there.
Photo: Nick Moir
Peter Hannam
Date September 11, 2013
Sydney's early fire season is no big surprise for authorities and nor should it be for the public - had we had been paying heed to scientists' warnings.
Experts at the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and elsewhere have found fire seasons are starting earlier and ending later. Climate change is probably behind the shift and if the trends continue as modelled, extreme fire weather will become more common.
Just last week, the Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre warned in its Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook that most of eastern NSW, ACT and western Victoria can expect above-average fire activity this summer.
Still, few were anticipating so early such a nasty combination of high winds and Sydney's warmest overnight and day temperatures on record for spring.
As Anthony Clark, a spokesman for the Rural Fire Service, said, fires aren't uncommon at this time of the year but ''it's unusual to see fire burning with so much intensity so early''.
Chris Lucas, a researcher at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, and co-author of several papers on fire trends, said a ''large trend'' towards higher forest fire danger readings is clear across south-east Australia, including around Sydney.
Key factors are drier winters and warmer temperatures. On that score, Sydney and much of NSW are in for a tough summer with the city posting its mildest winter and hottest year-to-date temperatures in more than 150 years. Coastal regions have been very dry for most of the past 10 weeks.
''The past two or three wet years took the pressure off a bit,'' Dr Lucas said. ''The public have relaxed a bit.''
Scenes of 30-metre-high flames, billowing smoke and roads clogged with drivers fleeing will go some way to shaking that complacency.
While scientists are cautious about tying research over several decades to climate change, Dr Lucas said higher fire risks were ''consistent with a global warming trend''.
The early season fires may stir some concern but whether the wider outlook for hotter and more fire-prone springs spark serious steps to reduce the causes and the risks remains to be seen.
Copyright © 2013 Fairfax Media
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/early-start-to-fire-season-should-not-surprise-anyone-20130910-2ticw.html
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Early bushfires should surprise no one: The warning signs were all there.
Photo: Nick Moir
Peter Hannam
Date September 11, 2013
Sydney's early fire season is no big surprise for authorities and nor should it be for the public - had we had been paying heed to scientists' warnings.
Experts at the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and elsewhere have found fire seasons are starting earlier and ending later. Climate change is probably behind the shift and if the trends continue as modelled, extreme fire weather will become more common.
Just last week, the Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre warned in its Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook that most of eastern NSW, ACT and western Victoria can expect above-average fire activity this summer.
Still, few were anticipating so early such a nasty combination of high winds and Sydney's warmest overnight and day temperatures on record for spring.
As Anthony Clark, a spokesman for the Rural Fire Service, said, fires aren't uncommon at this time of the year but ''it's unusual to see fire burning with so much intensity so early''.
Chris Lucas, a researcher at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, and co-author of several papers on fire trends, said a ''large trend'' towards higher forest fire danger readings is clear across south-east Australia, including around Sydney.
Key factors are drier winters and warmer temperatures. On that score, Sydney and much of NSW are in for a tough summer with the city posting its mildest winter and hottest year-to-date temperatures in more than 150 years. Coastal regions have been very dry for most of the past 10 weeks.
''The past two or three wet years took the pressure off a bit,'' Dr Lucas said. ''The public have relaxed a bit.''
Scenes of 30-metre-high flames, billowing smoke and roads clogged with drivers fleeing will go some way to shaking that complacency.
While scientists are cautious about tying research over several decades to climate change, Dr Lucas said higher fire risks were ''consistent with a global warming trend''.
The early season fires may stir some concern but whether the wider outlook for hotter and more fire-prone springs spark serious steps to reduce the causes and the risks remains to be seen.
Copyright © 2013 Fairfax Media
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/early-start-to-fire-season-should-not-surprise-anyone-20130910-2ticw.html
---
(linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91853503 and preceding (and any future following)
Greensburg, KS - 5/4/07
"Eternal vigilance is the price of Liberty."
from John Philpot Curran, Speech
upon the Right of Election, 1790
F6
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