Common anybody's guess as to value
Beta - Here's the deal.
Waiting by Congress on C-ship and/or div. restart ADDS value to common.
*IF* they wait until ALL sr. pfd. paid back AND capital in both companies equals $36B (the plan in place with 3rd amendment) then in 4 years the COMMON will have a nice 20% of "something" much more valuable than today.
Jr. pfds. will get div. restart, after watiing NINE years.
Logically, if the Sr. Pfd. converted to COMMON today, there would be about (making it up) $25B in Sr. pfd. + the 80% + the non-capitalized piece (currently $6B for each company). Freddie's amount owed at 10% dividend would be 15B (guess).
The longer it takes, the more common gets.
The second piece (as to the pfds varying value) is whether the "market" thinks there will be a blanket buyback or mingling of the RV with the commons. All 50s and all 25s are the same.
The last piece is liquidity. If you want to buy a lot, you must go to the MAS and CKJ. This is why they were over-priced (to my mind) while they were accumulating over the past few weeks.
IMO, they aren't holding back, any more. They are buying them all, and all are moving, without heed to trying to fool people.
COMMON has VERY little volume. I do expect that once the real news story hits, you will see a very nice move. Then again, they could hammer it for fun.
My safe strategy (today) is to only be in preferreds. If pfds. go up 20% (like FNMAJ being $6 and MAS close to $7) AND common wallows near $1, I may take some and place it on the table. It is a huge gamble. They could take it down to .50 they could let it run to $3 or $5.
I am glad I am in all pfds. today. I would be kicking myself.
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