Seelos Therapeutics Inc (SEELQ)

[Dimitrios George]

"Rivkind expects peak royalties of $35M for Vitaros."

I guess we should do some slicing and dicing and revisit the market. Unless someone has access to her report, we don't really know what assumptions she made other than she expects peak revenues of $300M and royalties to Apricus of $35 per year respectively for Vitaros. That would be an overall royalty percentage of just under 12%. I am not going to take issue with the latter.

We know that the ex-US ED market is estimated at $2.6B. We know that the ex-US market (or number of)for ED men who can't or eventually don't respond to PED5 drugs is about the same size as the market for men who do use PED5 drugs. I think we would all agree that Vitaros will make inroads into the existing market. Can we agree on 10%? For the non-PED5 market, which is an untouched market with essentially NO competition, can we agree on 25%?

So 10% X $2.6B + 25% X $2.6B = 35% X $2.6B (fancy algebra) = $0.91B = 910M or three times Rivkind's estimates. I will take my estimates and math over hers.