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Thursday, 01/05/2006 10:47:18 AM

Thursday, January 05, 2006 10:47:18 AM

Post# of 286613
THE REAL DEAL ONCE AGAIN
From our last official PR on the SEC the Baseline was at 3000 subs now if you add 25 percent to it, you get 3750. Remember the SEC number was the last legal document, everything else is forecast.

Given:
The domestic segment operates through 618
Superstores and five mall−based stores in 157 U.S. markets.
618 + 5 = 623 Total Stores

Given:
17 pilot = Increase of 750 subs per month from the 25% of 3000

Each Store Averages (ESA)
750 divided by 17 = 44 ESA

Daily Working Factor (DWF)

44 ESA sign ups per month. Divide by 30 days for a month = 1.47 signups a day per store average or DWF

10 additional stores added for pilot

we add 10 more for month of December.
10 X 44 ESA (per month) = 440 (for ten stores) + 750 (for 17 stores)


New monthly Baseline of 1190 per month for 27 stores starting JAN 1st.

Lets prorate for the month of December since the extra 10 stores were fully online after the 12th of dec,

mwjoy gave us the exact day dated 12-5-05, From numerous post and store calling. They were truly online one week later. The 12th of Dec are the numbers we are going by.

1.47 DWF (per store per day) X 10 new stores = 15 subs per day (rounded)

18 days of December left from the 12th.

15 subs X 18 days = 270 more subs until December 31

Given:
OCT 1 = 3000 (SEC numbers ending Sept 30)
NOV 1 = 750 (25% of 3000) (figs from OCT to Nov 1st)
DEC 1 = 750
JAN 1 = 750 + 270 (18 days) = 1020 <----------------------------- check point Dec 31 05; 5520 subs

(JAN 5 = <------------check point, we are here; +200 for 5 days worth of subs) 5720 subs in CC. 6300 subs or 110% of 3000 (fig from talknstocks)


6300 subtract 5720 = 580 misc non cc related subs (the gravy)
(most be word of mouth, or other advertisements ? )

JAN 15 PR - Starting the 1st of FEB ROLLOUT the 55 stores)
FEB 1 = 1190
MAR 1 = 1190 + Y = 3616
APR 1 = 1190 + 2Y = 6042
MAY 1 = 1190 + 3Y = 8468
JUN 1 = 1190 + 4Y = 10894
JUL 1 = 1190 + 5Y = 13320
AUG 1 = 1190 + 6Y = 15746
SEP 1 = 1190 + 7Y = 18172
OCT 1 = 1190 + 8Y = 20598
NOV 1 = 1190 + 9Y = 23024
DEC 1 = 1190 + 10Y = 25450
JAN 1 = 1190 + 10Y + X = 27479
TOTAL of 179,519 = By year end if everything rolls out right
Not to mention the Word of Mouth or Churn from those subs

Y= 2426 (55 stores X 1.47 daily sub rate X 30 days)
X= 2029 (46 last stores X 1.47 daily sub rate X 30 days)

1.47 signups a day per store average is the Daily Working Factor however, my friend the more awareness we give to the employees at this early point of the game, these basic figures will be altered.
You might have a few stores in the Pilot that people like Dfwyatt and MJOY riding the bull by the horns, however the other remaining ones are pulling down the daily average. We need to create more MJOYS and DWFAYTTs stores. The only way we can do that is through the awareness movement like we have 380 unaware stores remaining. Our vehicle we have is the LOW PPS in our corner and the National Ad. We need to create more clone stores of MJOY and DFWAYTT.
We need higher numbers FAST if we want to catch up to the NETFLIX TRAIN and the changing world of technology.


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